| pred-2026-07-16-008 | Between 2026-07-16 and 2027-07-31, for the first US consumer-brand boycott that (a) is identity-coded (a docum… | 0.60 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-07-16-009 | For the FIRST formal restriction to a disability- or incapacity-related benefit published as a government docu… | 0.62 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-07-15-001 | Through 2030, multilateral commissions and treaty bodies confronting commons problems (climate, migration burd… | 0.58 | active | 2030-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-657 | At the July 29-30 FOMC meeting, neither condition will be satisfied: the Fed will hold rates unchanged AND wil… | 0.72 | active | 2026-07-30 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-656 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, 2026 will print below 235,000, reported approximately J… | 0.62 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-655 | Brent crude will post an intraday or closing price above $90/barrel on at least one trading day between July 1… | 0.53 | active | 2026-07-28 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-654 | At least one GCC member state — most likely Saudi Arabia or UAE — will publicly announce a new or accelerated… | 0.78 | active | 2026-09-08 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-653 | McMaster announces a Graham replacement by July 28, 2026, and the appointee's Trump-loyalist factional alignme… | 0.71 | active | 2026-07-28 | |
| pred-2026-07-14-652 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at the July 29-30, 2026 meeting and will not release state… | 0.54 | active | 2026-07-28 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-651 | By September 7, 2026, at least two of the five named major EU member states (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Po… | 0.57 | active | 2026-09-07 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-650 | By 2026-07-27, the US Department of Defense will NOT conduct direct kinetic strikes against targets on Iranian… | 0.77 | active | 2026-07-27 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-649 | Brent crude oil will close above $105/barrel for at least 5 consecutive trading days within the 14 calendar da… | 0.62 | active | 2026-07-27 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-648 | By August 31, 2026, fewer than two of Germany, France, Poland, or the UK will have formally announced new bila… | 0.68 | active | 2026-08-31 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-647 | US headline CPI for June 2026 will print above 4.0% year-over-year when released this week (expected ~July 15,… | 0.70 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-07-13-646 | The UK Budget will NOT contain net new public capital expenditure commitments genuinely above £25 billion per… | 0.65 | active | 2026-07-27 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-645 | By 2026-08-22, Qatar's formal broker role in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and/or the US-Iran back-channel w… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-22 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-644 | Brent crude spot price will close above $110/barrel on at least 6 of the 10 trading days spanning 2026-07-14 t… | 0.71 | active | 2026-07-26 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-643 | The NATO summit communiqué published by 2026-07-18 will NOT formally commit all member states to a binding 3%… | 0.81 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-001 | Across the 2026–2029 window the governing dynamic in the advanced democracies will be an AXIOM-PERMUTATION rat… | 0.60 | active | 2029-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-642 | Within 60 days of the most recent formal US or EU sanctions-relief announcement on Syria (approximately July 2… | 0.38 | active | 2026-09-06 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-641 | June 2026 US CPI (released ~July 15) prints at or above 3.5% year-over-year AND Fed communications in the July… | 0.50 | active | 2026-07-26 | |
| pred-2026-07-12-640 | Iran will NOT conduct a direct kinetic attack on a US military asset (vessel, base, or aircraft) within 14 day… | 0.70 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-639 | No EU member state or the EU collectively will formally announce a navigational fee mechanism, shipping insura… | 0.78 | active | 2026-09-05 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-638 | By July 25 2026, the New York Times will formally challenge the DOJ journalist subpoenas in federal court AND… | 0.28 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-637 | The July 2026 NATO summit will NOT produce a publicly announced, binding commitment with explicit 90-day deliv… | 0.77 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-636 | US weekly initial jobless claims will not exceed 280,000 in any single week during July 15 – August 15, 2026,… | 0.79 | active | 2026-08-22 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-635 | The BLS June 2026 CPI release (due approximately July 11–15, 2026) will show year-over-year headline inflation… | 0.61 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-07-11-634 | The July 2026 NATO summit will produce a formal, named commitment from at least 3 member states to deliver Pat… | 0.43 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-07-10-633 | By 2026-09-04, the US Department of Commerce BIS will take at least one of the following formal actions in res… | 0.62 | active | 2026-09-04 | |
| pred-2026-07-10-632 | The NATO summit communiqué will NOT contain explicit language authorizing or endorsing Ukrainian use of allian… | 0.78 | active | 2026-07-24 | |
| pred-2026-07-10-631 | The BLS June 2026 CPI release will show headline year-over-year inflation at or above 3.0%, driven by Hormuz-d… | 0.71 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-07-10-001 | Through the end of 2028, US structural antitrust enforcement against the dominant digital platforms (Google, M… | 0.66 | active | 2028-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-07-09-630 | RSF forces will NOT achieve effective administrative control of El-Obeid (North Kordofan capital) by 2026-12-0… | 0.68 | active | 2026-12-09 | |
| pred-2026-07-09-629 | The US government will NOT issue a named executive or DOD policy change formally lifting all remaining range r… | 0.81 | active | 2026-07-23 | |
| pred-2026-07-09-628 | Iran's Assembly of Experts will formally announce either a single Supreme Leader designation or an interim col… | 0.68 | active | 2026-07-23 | |
| pred-2026-07-06-627 | Christine Lagarde will not formally announce her resignation from the ECB presidency by August 31, 2026. Secon… | 0.77 | active | 2026-08-31 | |
| pred-2026-07-06-626 | Within 14 days of Khamenei's death (by 2026-07-20), Iran's Assembly of Experts will formally convene a plenary… | 0.67 | active | 2026-07-20 | |
| pred-2026-07-06-625 | The NATO summit communiqué (expected July 13-16 2026) will NOT contain explicit formal language authorizing Uk… | 0.77 | pending | 2026-07-16 | |
| pred-2026-07-05-624 | Israeli officials will not publicly justify any significant military operation (in Gaza, West Bank, or Lebanon… | 0.81 | active | 2026-08-30 | |
| pred-2026-07-05-623 | By July 18, 2026, the Trump administration will NOT issue a new executive order, presidential proclamation, or… | 0.60 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-07-05-622 | By July 19, 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts will have formally convened at least once AND either (a) publicly… | 0.72 | active | 2026-07-19 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-621 | By December 31, 2026, the Israeli government will NOT formally announce the extension of Israeli civil law and… | 0.78 | active | 2026-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-620 | US June 2026 CPI headline year-over-year inflation will print at or above 3.5%, registering the first durable… | 0.63 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-619 | Iran's Assembly of Experts will formally confirm a single named individual as Supreme Leader by July 18, 2026. | 0.55 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-618 | El-Obeid (North Kordofan capital) falls under effective RSF control by August 29, 2026, completing RSF's weste… | 0.76 | active | 2026-08-29 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-617 | By July 18, 2026, the Iranian government will issue a formal public statement — from the Supreme Leader's offi… | 0.76 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-07-04-616 | The BLS June 2026 CPI release (~July 10, 2026) will report headline CPI at or above 3.2% YoY, reflecting measu… | 0.65 | pending | 2026-07-10 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-615 | By 2026-08-14, Moldova will confirm a new prime minister from PAS commanding a working parliamentary majority,… | 0.62 | active | 2026-08-14 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-614 | By 2026-07-17, both the ECB and the Élysée maintain official silence on Lagarde's tenure — no public statement… | 0.78 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-613 | By 2026-07-17, the Iranian Assembly of Experts will formally convene and produce a public succession resolutio… | 0.60 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-612 | By August 28, 2026, at least one of the following will occur: (a) a formal PAC or party committee filing with… | 0.71 | active | 2026-08-28 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-611 | By July 17, 2026, no federal district or circuit court will issue a TRO or preliminary injunction that substan… | 0.32 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-07-03-610 | June 2026 US headline CPI will print at ≥0.3% month-over-month (annualized ≥3.6%), confirming accelerating tar… | 0.71 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-609 | Spain's 1.2M immigration legalization scheme will NOT trigger a formal EU-level governance response — neither… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-27 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-608 | By July 16, 2026, US-Iran nuclear negotiations will produce neither a publicly announced framework agreement n… | 0.72 | pending | 2026-07-16 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-607 | The June 2026 US CPI YoY print (BLS release ~July 10) will register at or above 3.2%, driven by tariff pass-th… | 0.66 | pending | 2026-07-11 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-606 | By 2026-08-27, Venezuela's political crisis (death toll ~1,500) will produce at least one of: (a) a formal US-… | 0.22 | active | 2026-08-27 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-605 | Progressive/left-wing candidates will fail to win a majority (>50%) of contested Democratic primary races acro… | 0.76 | pending | 2026-07-16 | |
| pred-2026-07-02-604 | By 2026-07-16, the Supreme Court will not lift its temporary stay blocking Trump's removal of Federal Reserve… | 0.73 | pending | 2026-07-16 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-603 | By August 24, 2026, Venezuela's political crisis will not produce any of the three specified threshold events:… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-24 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-602 | Within 14 days of the Supreme Court's ruling cementing presidential removal power (by July 13, 2026), the Trum… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-13 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-601 | The BLS June 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls report (releasing July 3, 2026) will show job growth of 150,000 or more AN… | 0.50 | active | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-600 | By August 24, 2026, HM Government will formally announce a binding multi-year commitment to raise UK defense s… | 0.42 | active | 2026-08-24 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-599 | The US Senate will NOT produce any qualifying named legislative action (floor vote, committee-reported resolut… | 0.65 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-29-598 | By July 12, 2026, at least one of the following will occur: (a) a publicly confirmed direct or third-party (Om… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-28-597 | By August 23, 2026, the IAEA will NOT publicly confirm either (a) Iranian enrichment to weapons-grade (≥90% U-… | 0.64 | active | 2026-08-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-28-596 | By July 7, 2026, the heatwave governance threshold will NOT be crossed: fewer than three EU member states will… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-28-594 | By 2026-08-23, Venezuela will not experience a formal power-transition event — no resignation, successful mili… | 0.81 | active | 2026-08-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-28-593 | Brent crude will NOT close at or above $90/barrel for at least 2 consecutive trading sessions between 2026-06-… | 0.75 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-28-592 | Iran will NOT formally suspend, break off, or publicly announce withdrawal from nuclear negotiations by 2026-0… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-591 | By August 22, 2026, the Maduro government will neither call early elections/referendum nor invoke formal const… | 0.76 | active | 2026-08-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-590 | The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 will print below 48.0, with the modal estimate in the 46.0–47.5 ran… | 0.75 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-02 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-589 | The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework will NOT be formally abandoned by July 11, 2026 — neither party will is… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-11 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-588 | The IAEA will NOT formally expel its inspectors from Iran or issue a formal non-compliance referral to the UN… | 0.75 | active | 2026-08-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-587 | At least one additional commercial vessel will be attacked, boarded, or formally interdicted in or near the St… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-11 | |
| pred-2026-06-27-586 | The BLS June 2026 nonfarm payrolls first-release (July 3, 2026) will show fewer than 150,000 jobs added. | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-585 | The active Iran nuclear negotiation track (Oman back-channel, Vienna format, or equivalent) will NOT formally… | 0.66 | active | 2026-08-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-584 | By 2026-07-10, DHS will publicly announce and/or execute at least one documented deportation removal flight sp… | 0.77 | pending | 2026-07-10 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-583 | Brent crude will close $5/barrel or more above its June 25, 2026 settlement price on at most one of the five t… | 0.62 | pending | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-582 | No binding executive order or agency rule requiring pre-release national-security review for frontier AI model… | 0.81 | active | 2026-08-21 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-581 | Neither a formal parliamentary vote of no-confidence in Keir Starmer nor a public announcement of his resignat… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-10 | |
| pred-2026-06-26-580 | The June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI (released July 1) will print below 48.0, and within 48 hours of release, f… | 0.44 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-579 | By 2026-08-20, at least one European municipality or national-level government outside France formally cites o… | 0.55 | active | 2026-08-20 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-578 | Andy Burnham will NOT formally announce his Labour leadership candidacy or be publicly confirmed as leader-des… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-09 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-577 | Before July 4, 2026, the Supreme Court will issue at least one ruling in a non-immigration case that materiall… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-576 | HM Government will not introduce primary legislation or a statutory instrument formally enabling the transfer… | 0.81 | active | 2026-08-20 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-575 | The US Senate will NOT pass or formally bring to a floor vote a binding joint resolution under the War Powers… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-09 | |
| pred-2026-06-25-574 | The Maduro government will NOT formally request or publicly accept humanitarian assistance from the United Sta… | 0.75 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-09 | |
| pred-2026-06-24-573 | By August 19, 2026, HM Government will not have issued a statutory instrument, machinery-of-government change… | 0.70 | active | 2026-08-19 | |
| pred-2026-06-24-572 | The Washington talks on Lebanon will not produce a formal ceasefire agreement or agreed written framework bind… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-24-571 | The Housing Bill will remain unsigned by Trump through July 8, 2026. Trump will maintain the SAVE Act linkage… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-24-569 | The BLS June 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls preliminary print (released ~July 3, 2026) will show fewer than 75,000 net… | 0.52 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-24-568 | US-Iran nuclear negotiations will NOT produce a publicly announced preliminary framework, joint statement, or… | 0.77 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-567 | By 8 August 2026, the UK government's controversial defence plan will produce a visible fracture: either (a) i… | 0.65 | active | 2026-08-08 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-566 | By July 7, 2026, the Vance-led US-Iran nuclear talks will produce a publicly announced formal outcome — either… | 0.47 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-565 | The BLS June 2026 Employment Situation report (expected release approximately July 3, 2026) will show net manu… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-564 | By 2026-08-04, Iran will not grant IAEA inspectors verified physical access to Fordow or Parchin — defined as… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-563 | By 2026-07-07, a formal caretaker Prime Minister will be in place AND a Labour leadership contest timetable wi… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-23-562 | By 2026-07-07, Apollo Global Management will formally impose redemption restrictions (gates, side pockets, or… | 0.70 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-561 | By 2026-08-17, De la Espriella's transition team and/or first government communications will signal IMF-compat… | 0.71 | active | 2026-08-17 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-560 | IAEA inspectors will NOT gain documented physical access to at least one Iranian nuclear facility by 2026-07-0… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-559 | No permanently confirmed Labour leader as UK Prime Minister will emerge from a completed formal party leadersh… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-001 | At the conclusion of its next regularly scheduled meeting (the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, wi… | 0.72 | active | 2026-07-29 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-558 | De la Espriella's transition team will NOT issue a formal public announcement of reversal or suspension of Col… | 0.65 | active | 2026-08-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-557 | No jointly-acknowledged written framework document (communiqué, joint statement, or interim deal text) attribu… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-06-22-556 | Keir Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister before 2026-07-01, citing party unity and a managed handover to a su… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-555 | By 2026-08-16, Labour's shadow cabinet or senior national leadership publicly announces at least one formal ch… | 0.34 | active | 2026-08-16 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-554 | The Switzerland US-Iran negotiating round will NOT produce a formal joint written framework, preliminary agree… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-553 | Keir Starmer will remain Labour leader without announcing resignation or facing a formal PLP confidence vote t… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-05 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-552 | The Netanyahu coalition retains its formal Knesset parliamentary majority through August 16, 2026. Ben Gvir an… | 0.73 | active | 2026-08-16 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-551 | No formal Labour leadership challenge (nominations reaching 20% PLP threshold), no parliamentary vote of no-co… | 0.79 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-05 | |
| pred-2026-06-21-550 | The Vance diplomatic mission to Switzerland will not produce a publicly announced US-Iran ceasefire framework… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-28 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-549 | By August 15, 2026, the EU will NOT formally impose a new round of Iran sanctions that structurally diverges f… | 0.77 | active | 2026-08-15 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-548 | The Sanchez government will survive the period from 2026-06-20 to 2026-07-04 without a formal parliamentary no… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-547 | The center-right/establishment candidate wins Colombia's June 21, 2026 presidential runoff, defeating Ivan Cep… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-546 | Cuba's newly approved economic reforms will not produce any of the three specified stabilization indicators by… | 0.76 | active | 2026-08-15 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-545 | No formal Labour leadership challenge mechanism will be triggered by July 4, 2026 — Andy Burnham will not publ… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-20-544 | The EU Council summit (June 26–27, 2026) will produce neither (a) a formal suspension or lifting of Iran sanct… | 0.79 | pending | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-543 | No EU collective instrument — Council conclusions, formal CFSP declaration with binding effect, or formal init… | 0.79 | active | 2026-08-14 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-542 | Neither a formal signed US-Iran nuclear/sanctions agreement nor a public announcement of diplomatic breakdown… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-541 | No formal Labour Party no-confidence motion in Keir Starmer, NEC-triggered leadership review, or public resign… | 0.79 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-001 | The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for June 2026 — released in mid-July 2026 — wi… | 0.82 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-09-190-38a781 | - Prior framework would predict: about upcoming time-bound diplomatic instruments involving a fractured counte… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-07-171-f087b1 | - Prior framework would predict: about the **aftermath of Islamabad and the next round of US–Iran direct conta… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-06-19-540 | The Hegseth NATO posture review will NOT produce a formal US DoD announcement of a net reduction of ≥5,000 tro… | 0.79 | active | 2026-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-539 | ZANU-PF will advance Zimbabwe's constitutional amendment bill to replace direct presidential elections with pa… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-19-538 | Before June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court will issue at least one ruling in pending cases touching immigration d… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-537 | By August 13, 2026, at least three European NATO member states will have made public announcements of new or m… | 0.76 | active | 2026-08-13 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-536 | Before July 2, 2026, at least one chamber of the US Congress will introduce a formal war powers resolution, co… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-02 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-535 | The US Supreme Court will issue at least one opinion before June 30, 2026 that (a) curtails federal agency rul… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-534 | By 2026-08-13, at least one of the following will occur AND Lloyd's/JCC war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-13 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-533 | HM Government will formally announce Special Administration or equivalent statutory nationalization proceeding… | 0.74 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-18-532 | By 2026-07-02, NO major maritime insurance underwriter (Lloyd's syndicates, P&I clubs, or equivalent) will for… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-02 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-531 | The UK government will announce a Special Administration Order or equivalent statutory intervention for Thames… | 0.77 | active | 2026-08-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-530 | By July 1, 2026, the Trump administration will not issue a formal, named public objection to Iranian Hormuz tr… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-529 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-001 | The U.S. Department of Labor's weekly initial unemployment insurance claims report released Thursday June 18,… | 0.58 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-528 | HM Government will formally place Thames Water into special administration under the Water Industry Act 1991,… | 0.70 | active | 2026-07-31 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-527 | The Strait of Hormuz will NOT meet the operational reopening threshold (no Iranian escort requirements, per-ve… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-17-526 | The Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, and Chair Pow… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-525 | HM Government will place Thames Water into Special Administration under the Water Industry Act 1991 by 31 July… | 0.73 | active | 2026-08-11 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-524 | The Hormuz MoU will prove a volatile-fact declaration: full commercial transit clearance of all significantly… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-523 | The Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting,… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-522 | The Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by 25bp at the July 29–30, 2026 FOMC meeting, AND CME Fe… | 0.70 | active | 2026-07-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-521 | Brent crude oil will close below $70/barrel on at least 4 of the 7 trading days from June 16–24, 2026. | 0.52 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-24 | |
| pred-2026-06-16-520 | HM Government will formally initiate special administration proceedings for Thames Water under the Water Indus… | 0.64 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-519 | Reform UK will NOT achieve the composite outcome by August 10 2026: Farage will deliver one or more speeches t… | 0.22 | active | 2026-08-10 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-518 | Brent crude oil will close below $68/barrel on at least three of the 14 trading sessions following the US-Iran… | 0.60 | pending | 2026-06-29 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-517 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at the June 17–18 FOMC meeting AND issue post-m… | 0.64 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-001 | Before 2026-12-31, as part of the post-ceasefire US-Iran normalization, at least one government-confirmed non-… | 0.50 | active | 2026-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-516 | Israel will NOT formally declare sovereignty over, or announce permanent civil administrative annexation of, a… | 0.80 | active | 2026-08-10 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-515 | CME FedWatch July 2026 FOMC rate hike probability will reach or exceed 65% by end of day June 22, 2026, follow… | 0.54 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-15-514 | Before June 28, 2026, the US and Iran will produce a joint statement, framework announcement, or signed politi… | 0.43 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-28 | |
| pred-2026-06-14-513 | The FOMC votes to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, with 1-2 di… | 0.72 | active | 2026-07-29 | |
| pred-2026-06-14-512 | By June 28, 2026, neither the US nor Iran will announce a formal written framework agreement — defined as a si… | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-28 | |
| pred-2026-06-14-511 | The G7 Kananaskis communiqué (expected by 2026-06-17) will produce a lowest-common-denominator text: trade lan… | 0.79 | pending | 2026-06-17 | |
| pred-2026-06-12-510 | Following Trump's structural peer-power embrace of China in June 2026, the US administration will announce a m… | 0.30 | active | 2026-08-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-12-509 | By June 26, 2026, at least one of the following will have occurred in response to the Belfast communal violenc… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-26 | |
| pred-2026-06-12-508 | Kevin Warsh will NOT publicly signal a departure from the current pause stance — via explicit rate-cut path, f… | 0.64 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-26 | |
| pred-2026-06-10-507 | By August 5, 2026, Trump or an entity with documented Trump personal or family affiliation will announce a for… | 0.40 | active | 2026-08-05 | |
| pred-2026-06-10-506 | By June 24, 2026, the Maduro government will enact documented political repression of the Caracas protest wave… | 0.76 | pending | 2026-06-24 | |
| pred-2026-06-10-505 | OpenAI will NOT publicly confirm a formal IPO pathway — defined as either an S-1 filing with the SEC or an ann… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-24 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-504 | OpenAI will not file a formal S-1 registration statement with the SEC or announce a specific binding IPO valua… | 0.75 | active | 2026-08-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-503 | Within 14 days (by June 23, 2026), the Caracas protest wave demanding free elections will produce at least one… | 0.67 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-502 | By June 23, 2026, the US response to the alleged Iranian shootdown of a US helicopter over the Strait of Hormu… | 0.74 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-501 | No formal executive order, regulatory proposal, or legally cognizable equity-stake or licensing-revenue framew… | 0.79 | active | 2026-08-04 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-500 | Israel will conduct at least one direct kinetic strike on Iranian territory (not proxy forces, not Syrian/Leba… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-09-499 | The ICC Assembly of States Parties will not formally convene a special session or activate the Article 47 inde… | 0.84 | pending | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-498 | The Trump administration will not produce formal executive action (executive order, regulatory directive, or W… | 0.82 | active | 2026-08-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-497 | The London diplomatic talks on Ukraine will NOT produce a formal written ceasefire proposal, negotiation frame… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-496 | Israel will execute at least one confirmed direct kinetic strike on Iranian territory between June 8–22, 2026,… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-495 | No leading candidate in Peru's 2026 presidential race crosses 35% in first-round polling by July 20, 2026, and… | 0.77 | active | 2026-08-03 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-494 | The London Ukraine peace talks will not produce any formal written output — defined as a document signed or fo… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-08-493 | At least one of the EU, China, Canada, or Japan will formally announce or implement new retaliatory tariff mea… | 0.81 | pending | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-001 | Over the next twelve months (through 2027-06-07), the recurring Israel-Iran-Lebanon escalation theater will re… | 0.60 | active | 2027-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-492 | The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire will NOT formally collapse — defined as Israel publicly declaring it void OR sust… | 0.60 | active | 2026-08-01 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-491 | Iraq's Council of Representatives will NOT formally vote to confirm a new Prime Minister by June 21, 2026; the… | 0.78 | pending | 2026-06-21 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-490 | The UK government will formally announce targeted sanctions — designations, asset freezes, or trade restrictio… | 0.30 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-21 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-489 | By August 2, 2026, at least one of Apollo, Ares, KKR, or Carlyle will publicly announce or disclose redemption… | 0.67 | active | 2026-08-02 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-488 | A federal court will issue an emergency TRO or preliminary injunction suspending enforcement of Trump's relaun… | 0.42 | pending | 2026-06-21 | |
| pred-2026-06-07-487 | SoFi Stadium workers will reach a formal contract settlement with venue management before the FIFA World Cup o… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-11 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-486 | By July 31, 2026, at least two of the named alternative asset managers — Apollo, KKR, Ares, or Blue Owl — will… | 0.70 | active | 2026-07-31 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-485 | House Republican leadership will NOT schedule a floor vote on the Senate-passed $70B immigration enforcement b… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-484 | A federal court will issue a preliminary injunction or temporary restraining order blocking at least one of Tr… | 0.72 | pending | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-483 | The House will NOT pass an immigration enforcement bill with mandatory employer e-verify provisions intact eno… | 0.64 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-482 | By June 20, 2026, at least one of Apollo, KKR, Carlyle, or Ares will publicly announce redemption restrictions… | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-06-06-481 | The Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and, in its post-mee… | 0.62 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-19 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-480 | The US House will not pass any version of the Senate $70B immigration bill by July 17, 2026; inter-chamber man… | 0.67 | active | 2026-07-17 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-479 | Putin's key speech (on or before June 12, 2026) will NOT contain a concrete, publicly verifiable ceasefire or… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-478 | US initial weekly jobless claims for the week ending June 7, 2026 (BLS release June 12, 2026) will remain BELO… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-001 | Over the next four years (through mid-2030), across the major advanced democracies whose median voter has alre… | 0.59 | active | 2030-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-477 | By September 30, 2026, North Korea will conduct at least one of the following: an underground nuclear test det… | 0.63 | active | 2026-09-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-476 | By 2026-06-19, at least one of Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, KKR Credit, or Blue Owl Capital will… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-19 | |
| pred-2026-06-05-475 | The US Senate will NOT pass the Ukraine aid bill (House-passed June 4, 2026) by June 18, 2026; the bill will f… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-474 | The US will NOT issue a formal objection — defined as a named State Department condemnation, withholding of sp… | 0.80 | active | 2026-07-30 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-473 | By June 18, 2026, the United States will satisfy at least one of: (1) announce new Treasury/OFAC sanctions des… | 0.78 | pending | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-472 | By June 18, 2026, at least one of Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl, KKR, or Carlyle will publicly announce withdrawal re… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-471 | By July 15, 2026, at least one federal district or appellate court will issue a preliminary injunction (not me… | 0.78 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-470 | Israel will conduct at least one kinetic strike on Lebanese territory north of the south-Lebanon buffer zone —… | 0.62 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-04-469 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its June 17-18, 2026 meeting and issue a statement cond… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-468 | The Canadian federal government will issue a formal diplomatic protest or pass a parliamentary motion regardin… | 0.52 | pending | 2026-07-14 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-467 | The congressional hearing featuring Deputy AG Blanche on the $1.8 billion fund will produce NO formal accounta… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-16 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-466 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, 2026 (released June 5) will print below 215,000, with th… | 0.61 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-05 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-465 | Espriella defeats the leftist senator in the Colombia presidential runoff (expected late June 2026), capturing… | 0.54 | active | 2026-07-28 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-464 | Mette Frederiksen will formally present a named cabinet and signed coalition agreement to the Danish monarch o… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-09 | |
| pred-2026-06-02-463 | Iran will not take any concrete operational threshold-crossing measure — formal closure announcement, naval bl… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-12 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-462 | Iran will conduct at least one concrete physical action in or near the Strait of Hormuz — a formal naval exerc… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-07-13 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-461 | Espriella defeats the left-labor candidate in the Colombian presidential runoff (est. June 8–15, 2026) by a ma… | 0.63 | pending | 2026-06-15 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-460 | May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls print in the 115–145k range (below the 150k threshold), while unemployment holds… | 0.54 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-05 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-002 | The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report for May 2026 (all items, not seasonally adjusted, 12-month change) w… | 0.30 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-11 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-001 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds target range unchanged at its June 16-17, 2026 meeting, neither cutting n… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-17 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-459 | Espriella wins the June 21, 2026 Colombian presidential runoff, but his margin over the outsider candidate fal… | 0.48 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-458 | By June 14, 2026, US-Iran negotiations will produce no publicly signed formal framework or binding document; t… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-06-01-457 | A binding UN Security Council draft resolution explicitly demanding Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory… | 0.71 | pending | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-456 | The US-Iran diplomatic process will remain in renewable/stalled mode through 2026-07-26 — producing neither a… | 0.77 | active | 2026-07-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-455 | The BLS May 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls report (released June 5, 2026) will print below 100,000 — probability 42%.… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-454 | The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 will print below 50.0, recording a third consecutive month of manufactu… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-01 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-001 | Between mid-2026 and the end of 2028, across democracies undergoing executive consolidation (the US foremost,… | 0.69 | active | 2028-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-453 | By July 26, 2026, the Israeli government will formally appoint civilian administrators, issue an official gove… | 0.62 | active | 2026-07-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-452 | The BLS May 2026 nonfarm payrolls initial release on June 6, 2026 will print below 150,000 net new jobs, with… | 0.51 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-31-451 | By June 13, 2026, the Trump administration will not publicly announce a substantive formal outcome for US-Iran… | 0.68 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-450 | No G7 government will impose formal coercive measures — binding arms embargoes, asset freezes, or trade restri… | 0.80 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-449 | By June 13, 2026, the US and Iran will not produce any formal written framework document with binding commitme… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-13 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-448 | The BLS May 2026 non-farm payrolls report (released June 6) will show monthly job gains below 150,000 AND the… | 0.37 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-447 | By July 25, 2026, the Starmer government's welfare reform legislation will pass its second reading in the Comm… | 0.58 | active | 2026-07-25 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-446 | Brazil's Lula government will NOT issue a formal diplomatic protest — no ambassador summoning, no official com… | 0.78 | pending | 2026-06-13 | |
| pred-2026-05-30-445 | May 2026 US Non-Farm Payrolls will print below 150,000 jobs added in the BLS June 5 release (advance estimate) | 0.46 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-05 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-444 | By July 24, 2026, the FCC will NOT formally open license review or renewal proceedings against ABC, CBS, or NB… | 0.30 | active | 2026-07-24 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-443 | The Labour welfare reform package formally announced by 2026-06-12 will include mandatory work-activity condit… | 0.71 | pending | 2026-06-12 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-442 | The proposed US-Iran 60-day truce extension will NOT be formalized as a signed or jointly publicly acknowledge… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-441 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its June 2026 FOMC meeting, and the post-mee… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-19 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-440 | The US-Iran diplomatic channel will NOT formally collapse in the 14 days following June 1, 2026 — Oman will no… | 0.77 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-12 | |
| pred-2026-05-29-439 | Reform UK wins the Makerfield by-election, taking the seat from Labour, with Reform recording a vote share abo… | 0.63 | pending | 2026-06-12 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-438 | By July 9, 2026, Iran will NOT formally announce, implement, or credibly demonstrate Strait of Hormuz interdic… | 0.77 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-09 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-437 | The April 2026 PCE deflator (released ~May 30) will print above 3.0% year-over-year, AND at least one Federal… | 0.67 | pending | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-436 | Labour retains Makerfield in the by-election but its vote share falls by more than 10 percentage points relati… | 0.67 | pending | 2026-06-11 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-435 | By July 15, 2026, Hungary's Orbán government will formally announce at least one constitutional mechanism — a… | 0.68 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-434 | A bipartisan group of at least 5 US Senators or Representatives will formally introduce legislation or a resol… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-28-433 | Brent crude will NOT close above $90/barrel on at least 5 of the 10 trading days from May 29 to June 11, 2026,… | 0.38 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-11 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-432 | By July 15, 2026, Fidesz will NOT lose at least one additional parliamentary vote on a sovereignty or foreign-… | 0.16 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-431 | By June 10, 2026, IDF ground forces will be confirmed by official Israeli government or IDF statement to be op… | 0.55 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-430 | By June 10, 2026, the US and Iran will either (a) formally announce or convene a fifth round of direct nuclear… | 0.65 | pending | 2026-06-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-001 | Initial weekly unemployment claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending May 24, 2026, as reported by the… | 0.71 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-29 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-429 | Neither Andy Burnham will publicly declare his candidacy for Labour party leader nor Keir Starmer will publicl… | 0.79 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-428 | Brent crude spot price will exceed $85/barrel on at least one trading day between May 28 and June 6, 2026, fol… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-27-427 | The Bolivian government will remain formally intact — no presidential resignation, no emergency or martial-law… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-426 | By July 21, 2026, neither Andy Burnham will publicly declare candidacy in a Labour leadership contest nor Keir… | 0.80 | active | 2026-07-21 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-425 | By June 9, 2026, the UN Security Council will NOT convene a formal emergency session specifically addressing t… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-09 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-424 | By June 9, 2026, Turkey's protest movement following the May 2026 opposition leader ouster will produce at lea… | 0.63 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-09 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-423 | Serbia's government will make no formal political concession (snap elections announced, Prime Minister resigna… | 0.74 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-422 | Brent crude oil will NOT exceed $100/barrel at any point in the 7 trading days following US military strikes o… | 0.62 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-04 | |
| pred-2026-05-26-421 | Iran will NOT formally suspend, walk out of, or declare the Qatar nuclear talks dead within 7 days of the US m… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-02 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-420 | By July 15, 2026, Serbia's protest trajectory will remain in managed stalemate: the Vučić government will neit… | 0.74 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-419 | No jointly acknowledged written output — communiqué, agreed framework document, or co-signed technical annex —… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-418 | Russia will launch at least one major strike package (≥3 ballistic or cruise missiles, or a drone salvo of ≥5… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-417 | Saudi Arabia will NOT formally announce a public reduction, deferral, or restructuring of Vision 2030 capital… | 0.76 | pending | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-416 | Serbia's government will not formally announce snap parliamentary elections, a binding constitutional referend… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-25-415 | Pentagon-Beijing military-to-military talks will be formally postponed, cancelled, or downgraded to working-le… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-24-414 | Back-channel US-China military communication (defense attaché exchanges, embassy-level contact, third-country… | 0.73 | active | 2026-07-18 | |
| pred-2026-05-24-413 | Serbia's student protest movement will plateau without extracting a formal government concession meeting thres… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-24-412 | The Bureau of Economic Analysis April 2026 core PCE year-over-year reading will print above 2.7%, reinforcing… | 0.67 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-21-411 | Milei's government will not formally reverse, suspend, or materially modify the university funding cuts in res… | 0.72 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-21-410 | At least one additional UK ministerial departure (minister of state level or above) will occur, OR a formal no… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-04 | |
| pred-2026-05-21-409 | The April 2026 core PCE price index (BEA release ~May 30, 2026) will print at or above 2.5% year-over-year, an… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-04 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-408 | By June 30, 2026, the US and China will announce a joint document framed as a 'trade framework,' 'trade princi… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-407 | At least one additional minister will resign from or be removed from Starmer's cabinet between 2026-05-20 and… | 0.77 | pending | 2026-06-03 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-406 | Brent crude will close below $75/barrel on at least 5 of the 10 trading days between May 20 and June 3, 2026,… | 0.44 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-03 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-001 | Over the next 18 months, institutions facing organized boycotts or sanctions campaigns will increasingly conve… | 0.72 | active | 2026-11-20 | |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-07-169-e2e4ee | - **Prior framework would predict**: As Hormuz blockade and tariff regime persist through Q2-Q3 2026, monthly… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-10-200-b086d2 | - **Prior framework would predict**: In the next round of US-Iran/Pakistan negotiations (if it occurs with con… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-05-20-405 | By 2026-07-15, at least two US regulatory agencies currently experiencing confirmed leadership vacancies (incl… | 0.72 | pending | 2026-07-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-404 | The Coalition will successfully force material amendments or procedural delay, preventing the 2026 Budget capi… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-03 | |
| pred-2026-05-20-403 | The UK House of Commons passes the Loyal Address following the King's Speech without a successful no-confidenc… | 0.81 | pending | 2026-06-03 | |
| pred-2026-05-13-402 | UK 10-year gilt yields will breach 5.5% at least once during the period May 13 – July 8, 2026, as compound pol… | 0.55 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-13-401 | The Chalmers capital gains and negative gearing reform package will not pass the Australian Senate in its orig… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-27 | |
| pred-2026-05-13-400 | The UK King's Speech, if delivered by 2026-05-27, will include at least one piece of primary legislation expli… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-27 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-399 | No US Congressional committee will hold formal hearings specifically on an Iran AUMF authorization or advance… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-398 | The UK government will NOT announce a formal emergency fiscal consolidation measure (unscheduled spending revi… | 0.52 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-397 | The Australian Labor government's negative gearing and capital gains tax reform measures as announced in Budge… | 0.62 | pending | 2026-05-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-396 | The UK government will not table a revised welfare reform bill containing substantive conditionality or activi… | 0.78 | pending | 2026-07-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-395 | The Trump-Xi summit will produce a publicly announced trade framework containing at least one of: (a) named ta… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-12-394 | Treasurer Chalmers' 2026 Federal Budget will declare a nominal fiscal surplus AND include direct household cos… | 0.79 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-393 | No formal no-confidence motion in Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader will be tabled by Labour MPs, and Starme… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-06 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-392 | The United States and China will not publicly issue a joint statement, framework, or communiqué specifically a… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-25 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-391 | Brent crude oil spot price will NOT breach $95 per barrel on any trading day close between May 12 and May 18,… | 0.77 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-18 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-390 | No direct US-Iran naval exchange, vessel seizure by either party, or US military strike on Iranian assets will… | 0.67 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-389 | The UK King's Speech (delivered within 14 days of 2026-05-11) will include at least one of: (a) a housing supp… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-25 | |
| pred-2026-05-11-388 | The US CPI release on approximately May 12-14, 2026 (measuring April 2026 price levels) will show headline yea… | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-25 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-387 | The House Agriculture Committee will approve a reconciliation markup including SNAP spending reductions and/or… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-386 | A subsequent round of US-Iran indirect nuclear or Hormuz-related talks will be publicly confirmed or announced… | 0.64 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-24 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-385 | Keir Starmer will neither face a formal no-confidence motion from within the Parliamentary Labour Party (requi… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-24 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-384 | No direct Putin-Zelensky bilateral meeting will take place, nor will confirmed dates for such a meeting be pub… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-21 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-383 | Within 14 days of the court ruling striking down 10% global tariffs (by 2026-05-24), the Trump administration… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-24 | |
| pred-2026-05-10-382 | No formal vote of no confidence or leadership contest nomination will be publicly submitted against Keir Starm… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-24 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-001 | The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report for April 2026 (all items, seasonally adjusted) will show a positive… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-13 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-381 | By June 30, 2026, the EU will formally pause, extend, or substantially modify its July 4 retaliatory tariff ul… | 0.34 | pending | 2026-07-04 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-380 | The Trump administration will secure a judicial emergency stay (from the circuit court, SCOTUS, or both) reins… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-23 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-379 | Credible reports of resumed large-scale offensive operations by Russia or Ukraine will emerge before May 15, 2… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-378 | The United States will not issue formal sanctions, invoke Article 4 NATO consultation, or publicly demand arms… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-377 | At least one qualifying event will occur between 2026-05-09 and 2026-05-16: Russia formally announcing a new o… | 0.35 | pending | 2026-05-16 | |
| pred-2026-05-09-376 | A US federal appellate court (Federal Circuit) will grant an emergency administrative stay reinstating the 10%… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-23 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-375 | Keir Starmer will remain Labour Party leader on June 30, 2026, with no formal leadership confidence vote havin… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-374 | The US-China trade talks currently underway will produce at least one publicly announced output — a framework… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-22 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-373 | The April 2026 US CPI report (released approximately May 13, 2026) will show month-over-month headline inflati… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-22 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-372 | The United States will not conduct direct kinetic strikes on Iranian territory or Iranian military installatio… | 0.74 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-07-03 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-371 | The Trump administration will obtain an emergency appellate stay of the Court of International Trade ruling in… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-21 | |
| pred-2026-05-08-370 | Labour will fail to retain the largest-party position in the Welsh Senedd following the May 2026 elections, en… | 0.71 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-369 | By June 18, 2026, Israel will formally announce and initiate a large-scale ground military operation explicitl… | 0.30 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-368 | The US April 2026 CPI report (released approximately May 13-14) will show year-over-year headline inflation at… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-21 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-367 | Putin's May 9, 2026 Victory Day address and surrounding official communications through May 14 will contain ne… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-366 | By June 30, 2026, China will NOT formally announce a bilateral or multilateral diplomatic initiative — hosted… | 0.68 | pending | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-365 | By May 21, 2026, Hezbollah will neither formally declare the 2024 Lebanon ceasefire void nor launch a single r… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-21 | |
| pred-2026-05-07-364 | Labour will lose net control of at least 3 councils and at least 150 council seats in the May 7, 2026 UK local… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-363 | The WHO will NOT issue a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or equivalent formal interna… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-17 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-362 | The BLS April 2026 CPI release (expected May 13–14, 2026) will show headline CPI year-over-year at or above 3.… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-20 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-361 | The FOMC will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% following its May 6–7, 2026 meeting, explic… | 0.83 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-360 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, announcing no ra… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-359 | Iranian government officials will NOT issue any formal statement or diplomatic action officially indicating op… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-20 | |
| pred-2026-05-06-358 | Brent crude oil futures will NOT decline by more than 4% within 7 days of Trump's Project Freedom pause announ… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-13 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-357 | The US-China tariff standoff will persist without formal structural engagement through June 30, 2026 — no join… | 0.62 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-356 | The BLS April 2026 CPI report (~May 13 release) will show headline YoY inflation at or above 3.5%, consistent… | 0.34 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-13 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-355 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at its May 6-7, 2026 meeting, AND the post-m… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-08 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-354 | By June 30, 2026, Germany will formally announce a multi-year defense spending pathway that explicitly meets o… | 0.67 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-353 | The Lula-Trump Washington meeting (week of May 5, 2026) will produce no formal bilateral trade instrument, exp… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-19 | |
| pred-2026-05-05-352 | Labour will lose net control of 4 or more councils in the May 7, 2026 UK local elections, AND Keir Starmer's g… | 0.69 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-11 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-351 | The UK government will issue a communiqué, Treasury statement of intent, or signed agreement formally associat… | 0.65 | pending | 2026-06-01 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-350 | The UK government will NOT issue a formal diplomatic protest, summon the Israeli ambassador, or announce a pol… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-18 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-349 | The US Navy will successfully coordinate the transit of at least 3 additional commercially-operated vessels th… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-348 | By June 15, 2026 (six weeks after Mélenchon's announcement), at least one of PS, PCF, or EELV will have issued… | 0.74 | pending | 2026-06-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-347 | The United States will NOT formally announce or initiate a named naval convoy or escort operation through the… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-17 | |
| pred-2026-05-04-346 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its May 6–7, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining… | 0.85 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-345 | By 2026-06-14, the German government will formally announce a substantial modification to its troop reduction… | 0.63 | pending | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-344 | The UK government will NOT formally declare an energy emergency or extend mandatory energy rationing beyond th… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-17 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-343 | A fourth formal round of Iran-US nuclear negotiations will NOT be publicly announced or formally scheduled by… | 0.55 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-17 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-342 | The United States will NOT formally announce a net reduction of at least 10,000 troops stationed in Germany, I… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-28 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-341 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its May 6-7, 2026 meeting AND issue a statement with ha… | 0.83 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-03-340 | In the UK local elections on 7 May 2026, Labour will suffer a net loss of more than 150 council seats, and the… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-05-02-339 | Iran will not conduct a significant escalation of Hormuz commercial shipping disruption — defined as three or… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-15 | |
| pred-2026-05-02-338 | The UK government will NOT table formal legislation, issue statutory guidance under existing public order powe… | 0.63 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-16 | |
| pred-2026-05-02-337 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its May 6-7, 2026 meeting, maintaining the current targ… | 0.87 | pending | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-01-336 | Congress will not advance any war powers resolution, supplemental appropriations bill, or defunding amendment… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-26 | |
| pred-2026-05-01-335 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at the May 6-7, 2026 FOMC meeting… | 0.88 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-05-01-334 | The April 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report (released May 2, 2026) will show net job creation above 150,000, wit… | 0.56 | pending | 2026-05-02 | |
| pred-2026-04-28-001 | Any US-Iran bilateral arrangement finalized before December 31, 2026 will be structured as a short-duration ex… | 0.82 | active | 2026-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-28-333 | The US and Iran will NOT announce a formal written framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program before June 2… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-23 | |
| pred-2026-04-28-332 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds target rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% at the conclusion of the M… | 0.89 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-28-331 | The BEA Q1 2026 advance GDP estimate released on April 30, 2026 will show annualized real GDP growth below 1.0… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-330 | At least one G7 economy other than Canada will formally announce a new sovereign wealth fund or a qualifying e… | 0.30 | pending | 2026-06-22 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-329 | The United States and Iran will NOT issue any formal joint statement, agreed framework document, or publicly a… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-328 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at the conclusion of the May 6-7,… | 0.93 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-327 | By 2026-07-26 (within 90 days of Defence Minister Camara's assassination), the Malian transitional government… | 0.56 | active | 2026-07-26 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-326 | A direct or indirect US-Iran diplomatic contact will be publicly announced or confirmed before May 11, 2026, t… | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-27-325 | The BEA's advance estimate of US Q1 2026 real GDP (scheduled for release ~April 30, 2026) will show a negative… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-324 | Within six weeks of the confirmed Orbán coalition election defeat (by 2026-06-07), the Hungarian forint will d… | 0.49 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-323 | The BLS April 2026 non-farm payrolls report (releasing approximately May 2, 2026) will show total payroll job… | 0.40 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-322 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% following the April 29–30, 2026 F… | 0.80 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-01 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-321 | Armed groups will NOT execute a sustained incursion into Bamako's urban core (inside the Boulevard ring road)… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-320 | In the May 7, 2026 Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and English local elections, Labour's combined vote shar… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-04-26-319 | The BEA advance estimate of US Q1 2026 GDP (expected release April 29–30, 2026) will show negative annualized… | 0.73 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-02 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-318 | The Malian transitional government will NOT formally declare a national state of emergency AND will NOT public… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-317 | The SNP will win fewer than 65 seats in the May 7, 2026 Scottish Parliament election, failing to secure an out… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-09 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-316 | The BEA advance estimate released April 30, 2026 will show Q1 2026 real GDP growth as negative (below 0.0% ann… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-315 | The Lebanon ceasefire extended ~2026-04-21 will NOT collapse before its scheduled expiry (~2026-05-12) through… | 0.71 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-314 | The King Charles visit to President Trump (by 2026-04-28) will NOT result in a formal US public announcement o… | 0.65 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-25-313 | US and Iranian envoys will NOT jointly release a written framework document — communiqué, statement of princip… | 0.92 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-09 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-312 | By June 19, 2026, Russian warships will be permanently stationed at, and/or Russian troops will be based at, I… | 0.25 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-19 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-311 | No Russian warships will be permanently stationed at, and no Russian troops will be based at, Indian military… | 0.85 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-19 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-310 | By May 5, 2026, the Lebanon ceasefire will NOT be formally extended for at least one additional 14-day period.… | 0.40 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-309 | The Lebanon ceasefire will be formally extended for at least one additional period of 14 or more days by May 5… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-308 | The BEA advance estimate of Q1 2026 real GDP growth (released ~April 30, 2026) will show positive annualized g… | 0.54 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-307 | The BEA advance estimate of Q1 2026 real GDP growth (released ~April 30, 2026) will show negative annualized g… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-306 | US-Iran nuclear and sanctions negotiations will produce a publicly acknowledged written framework or agreement… | 0.32 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-305 | US-Iran nuclear and sanctions negotiations will NOT produce a publicly acknowledged written framework or agree… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-304 | The FOMC will vote to change the federal funds rate from 4.25–4.50% (either cut or hike), or one or more membe… | 0.09 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-303 | The FOMC will vote to hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% at its May 6–7, 2026 meeting, with n… | 0.93 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-24-302 | The Conservative Party of Canada under Pierre Poilievre will win enough seats on April 28, 2026 to form govern… | 0.35 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-02 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-24-301 | The Liberal Party of Canada under Mark Carney will win enough seats on April 28, 2026 to form government (mino… | 0.77 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-02 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-300 | The $70bn ICE/Border Patrol funding bill will NOT be signed into law by June 18, 2026 | 0.19 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-299 | The $70bn ICE/Border Patrol funding bill that passed the Senate will be signed into law by June 18, 2026. | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-18 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-298 | No publicly confirmed kinetic naval engagement between US forces and Iranian vessels in or near the Strait of… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-297 | A publicly confirmed kinetic naval engagement between US forces and Iranian vessels in or near the Strait of H… | 0.23 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-296 | The Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% at its May 6–7, 2026 FOMC… | 0.11 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-295 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% at its May 6–7, 2026 FOMC meeting… | 0.89 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-294 | By August 31, 2026, the Israeli government or IDF will NOT formally designate and announce a named military op… | 0.32 | active | 2026-08-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-293 | By August 31, 2026, the Israeli government or IDF will formally designate and announce a named military operat… | 0.78 | active | 2026-08-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-292 | By May 7, 2026, the US will NOT announce any of the following: (1) formal new OFAC/Treasury sanctions specific… | 0.32 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-291 | By May 7, 2026, the US government will announce at least one of the following: (1) formal new OFAC/Treasury sa… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-23-290 | The BEA advance estimate of US Q1 2026 real GDP growth will show non-negative annualized real growth (≥0%), co… | 0.27 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-23-289 | The BEA advance estimate of US Q1 2026 real GDP growth (expected release April 29–30, 2026) will show negative… | 0.75 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-001 | By July 31, 2026, the ongoing US-Iran Hormuz confrontation will have provided the political authorization for… | 0.65 | active | 2026-07-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-287 | No written framework, parameters document, or joint statement of principles on US-Iran nuclear de-escalation w… | 0.88 | pending | 2026-06-15 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-286 | At least one UK cabinet minister will resign directly citing the Doyle job controversy, or a formal Labour Par… | 0.08 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-06 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-22-285 | No UK cabinet minister will resign from government directly citing the Doyle job controversy, and no formal La… | 0.93 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-06 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-284 | Q1 2026 advance GDP estimate will show positive real GDP growth (annualized rate above 0%), likely in the rang… | 0.48 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-22-283 | The BEA Q1 2026 advance GDP estimate released on April 30, 2026 will show negative real GDP growth (annualized… | 0.71 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-282 | None of WFP, OCHA, or the IPC Famine Review Committee will formally declare IPC Phase 5 (famine) conditions in… | 0.58 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-17 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-22-281 | At least one of WFP, OCHA, or the IPC Famine Review Committee will formally declare IPC Phase 5 (famine) condi… | 0.45 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-17 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-280 | At least one of the three formal challenge triggers will materialize by May 6, 2026: either a cabinet-level re… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-06 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-22-279 | None of the three formal challenge triggers materialize by May 6, 2026: no cabinet-level resignation directly… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-06 | |
| pred-2026-04-22-278 | A jointly-attributed written framework agreement or formal joint communiqué committing both parties to continu… | 0.22 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-22-277 | No written framework agreement or formal joint communiqué committing both parties to continued structured nego… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-276 | By June 16, 2026, an operational disbursement mechanism will exist that has transferred capital to Gaza-based… | 0.52 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-16 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-275 | By June 16, 2026, international Gaza reconstruction pledges announced at any formal conference or donor coordi… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-16 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-274 | The Starmer government will experience either a frontbench resignation or announcement of a by-election specif… | 0.39 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-273 | The Starmer government will NOT experience a frontbench resignation or announce a by-election tied specificall… | 0.63 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-272 | US-Iran nuclear negotiations will produce a formal framework agreement or substantive joint statement with spe… | 0.32 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-271 | US-Iran nuclear negotiations will not produce a formal framework agreement or substantive joint statement with… | 0.64 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-270 | Iraq's Council of Representatives will formally confirm a new Prime Minister by June 7, 2026 — the political v… | 0.30 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-16 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-269 | Iraq's Council of Representatives will NOT formally confirm a new Prime Minister by June 7, 2026; the politica… | 0.83 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-16 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-268 | By May 5, 2026, at least one of the US or Iran will publicly acknowledge the Islamabad back-channel talks thro… | 0.25 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-267 | By May 5, 2026, neither the US nor Iran will publicly acknowledge the reported Islamabad back-channel talks th… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-21-266 | Labour will retain the Birmingham seat with a majority of 5,000 votes or more, while the Conservative Party fi… | 0.38 | pending | 2026-05-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-21-265 | Reform UK will finish in second place ahead of the Conservative Party in the Birmingham by-election, while Lab… | 0.62 | pending | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-20-264 | Iraq's ruling Shia bloc WILL achieve both formal nomination and parliamentary confirmation of a new prime mini… | 0.55 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-20-263 | Iraq's ruling Shia bloc will fail to achieve both formal nomination AND parliamentary confirmation of a new pr… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-15 | |
| pred-2026-04-20-261 | By May 4, 2026, the US tariff refund system will face publicly documented administrative backlog, processing f… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-04 | |
| pred-2026-04-20-260 | The Lebanon-Israel direct talks on April 24, 2026 will produce at least one of the following within 14 days (b… | 0.38 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-04 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-20-259 | The Lebanon-Israel direct talks on April 24, 2026 will end without a written joint communiqué, agreed withdraw… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-04 | |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-12-220-951761 | - **Prior framework would predict**: About the post-April 21 US-Iran landscape, that the diplomatic process wi… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-12-218-c6d551 | - **Prior framework would predict**: In Turkey, Erdogan's AKP — which has deeper institutional capture, longer… | 0.50 | active | — | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-19-257 | By June 14, 2026 (within 8 weeks of the Australia-Japan $7bn warships deal signed April 2026), at least one fo… | 0.66 | pending | 2026-06-14 | |
| pred-2026-04-19-256 | By May 3, 2026, the UK 'Starmer cover-up' controversy will escalate beyond media/parliamentary containment wit… | 0.25 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-19-255 | The UK 'Starmer cover-up' controversy will remain contained as a media/parliamentary questions event with no v… | 0.83 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-03 | |
| pred-2026-04-19-254 | The US-Pakistan-Iran diplomatic track will produce a publicly announced tangible output — including a joint co… | 0.27 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-19-253 | The US-Pakistan-Iran diplomatic track will NOT produce a publicly announced tangible output — no joint communi… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-03 | |
| pred-2026-04-19-252 | The Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate from 4.25–4.50% to 3.75–4.00% or lower at the May 6–7,… | 0.10 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-19-251 | The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% at the May 6–7, 2026 FOMC meeting… | 0.87 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-19-250 | A formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration will be issued for at least one geographic area of Gaza by May 3, 2026 | 0.28 | pending | 2026-05-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-19-249 | No formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration will be issued for any part of Gaza before May 3, 2026; current 'immi… | 0.75 | pending | 2026-05-03 | |
| pred-2026-04-19-247 | Brent crude oil will NOT close below $98/bbl on any trading day between April 21 and May 2, 2026, even if a fo… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-03 | |
| pred-2026-04-18-246 | By May 31, 2026, at least one major GCC sovereign wealth fund (Saudi PIF, UAE ADIA/Mubadala/ADQ, Kuwait Invest… | 0.12 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-18-245 | By May 31, 2026, no major GCC sovereign wealth fund (Saudi PIF, UAE ADIA/Mubadala/ADQ, Kuwait Investment Autho… | 0.93 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-18-243 | No formal written ceasefire framework, interim nuclear deal, or jointly-acknowledged negotiating document will… | 0.87 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-02 | |
| pred-2026-04-18-242 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19, 2026 (released April 24) will come in BELOW 225,000, a… | 0.53 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-24 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-18-241 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19, 2026 (released April 24) will come in at or above 225,… | 0.57 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-24 | |
| pred-2026-04-17-240 | The UK government WILL table formal primary legislation OR sign a provisional framework agreement adopting EU… | 0.30 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-17-239 | The UK government will NOT table formal primary legislation nor sign a provisional framework agreement adoptin… | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-30 | |
| pred-2026-04-17-238 | Hungary's post-Orbán government will produce a formal public commitment to EU rule-of-law reforms sufficient f… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-01 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-17-237 | Hungary's post-Orbán government will NOT produce a formal public commitment to EU rule-of-law reforms sufficie… | 0.09 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-01 | |
| pred-2026-04-17-235 | Brent crude oil will exceed $110/bbl on at least one trading day between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-27, given the… | 0.68 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-27 | |
| pred-2026-04-13-001 | The post-Hormuz period (2026-2027) will produce a measurable increase in state interventionism in energy and c… | 0.72 | active | 2027-10-13 | |
| pred-2026-04-13-233 | By June 7, 2026, at least one major Gulf sovereign wealth fund (Saudi PIF, UAE ADIA, or Kuwait KIA) will publi… | 0.27 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-13-232 | By April 26, 2026, fewer than 3 G7 members beyond the UK will issue formal, public governmental statements dec… | 0.67 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-26 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-13-231 | By April 26, 2026, at least 3 G7 members beyond the UK will issue formal, public governmental statements decli… | 0.64 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-26 | |
| pred-2026-04-13-230 | Brent crude oil will close above $100/barrel on 3 or fewer of the 5 trading days from April 14–18, 2026 | 0.35 | pending | 2026-04-18 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-13-229 | Brent crude oil will close above $100/barrel on at least 4 of the 5 trading days from April 14–18, 2026, given… | 0.83 | pending | 2026-04-18 | |
| pred-2026-04-12-228 | By June 7, 2026, none of the major GCC sovereign wealth funds (ADIA, PIF, QIA, or KIA) will publicly announce… | 0.85 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-12-227 | By June 7, 2026, at least one major GCC sovereign wealth fund (ADIA, PIF, QIA, or KIA) will publicly announce… | 0.14 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-07 | |
| pred-2026-04-12-226 | The Iran-Hormuz ceasefire will collapse before April 26, 2026, with either renewed Iranian military interdicti… | 0.41 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-26 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-12-225 | The Iran-Hormuz ceasefire will not collapse before April 26, 2026 — neither (a) renewed Iranian military inter… | 0.63 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-26 | |
| pred-2026-04-12-223 | The Hungarian opposition coalition led by TISZA will fail to deny Fidesz its parliamentary supermajority (≥133… | 0.54 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-26 | |
| pred-2026-04-12-222 | Either Russia or Ukraine will formally announce ceasefire breakdown, or one or both sides will execute verifie… | 0.38 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-12-221 | The Orthodox Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will hold at the formal threshold through April 20, 2… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-12-220 | The US-Iran Islamabad talks will produce at least one publicly announced, substantive written output—either a… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-19 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-12-218 | Fidesz will secure either ≥100 parliamentary seats directly, or will remain a necessary coalition partner such… | 0.57 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-19 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-12-217 | The Tisza/Magyar Péter coalition will win a sufficient number of parliamentary seats in the April 12, 2026 Hun… | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-19 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-001 | US initial weekly jobless claims for the week ending April 12, 2026 (reported Thursday April 17, 2026) will re… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-17 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-216 | By June 6, 2026, no NATO member state will formally request renegotiation of US military base access terms or… | 0.62 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-06 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-11-215 | By June 6, 2026, at least one NATO member state will formally request renegotiation of US military base access… | 0.44 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-06 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-214 | By April 25, 2026, Iran will satisfy both conditions simultaneously: (1) a formal Iranian delegation will part… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-25 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-11-213 | By April 25, 2026, Iran will NOT satisfy both conditions simultaneously: (1) formal Iranian delegation partici… | 0.08 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-25 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-212 | Fidesz-KDNP loses parliamentary majority in April 2026 Hungarian elections; Péter Magyar's Tisza-led oppositio… | 0.44 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-25 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-11-211 | Fidesz-KDNP retains parliamentary majority and government formation capacity in Hungary's April 2026 national… | 0.58 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-25 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-210 | The KMT opposition leader's April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping WILL produce a publicly announced formal cross-… | 0.33 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-11-209 | The KMT opposition leader's April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping will NOT produce a publicly announced formal cr… | 0.87 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-05 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-001 | By March 31, 2027, at least three of the ten largest technology companies by market capitalization (regardless… | 0.65 | active | 2027-03-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-207 | The UK government will NOT publicly announce or formally confirm a specific named military deployment or coali… | 0.80 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-25 | |
| pred-2026-04-11-206 | Iran will issue a formal public statement by April 25, 2026 explicitly confirming its participation in a secon… | 0.25 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-25 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-11-205 | Iran will not issue a formal public statement explicitly confirming participation in a second round of US-Iran… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-25 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-203 | By May 22, 2026, neither qualifying formal response will materialize: Beijing will not issue a state-level for… | 0.66 | pending | 2026-05-22 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-202 | Commercial tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz will remain below 60% of pre-conflict baseline traffic… | 0.86 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-24 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-10-201 | Commercial tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to at least 60% of pre-conflict baseline t… | 0.10 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-24 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-200 | The US-Pakistan-Iran Islamabad talks WILL produce a publicly announced, jointly attributed statement, framewor… | 0.52 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-10-199 | The US-Pakistan-Iran Islamabad talks will NOT produce a publicly announced, jointly attributed statement, fram… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-198 | The European Commission will formally adopt a comprehensive retaliatory tariff or countermeasure package targe… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-10-197 | The European Commission will NOT formally adopt a comprehensive retaliatory tariff or countermeasure package t… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-195 | At least one unannounced tariff measure — executive order imposing new duties, retaliatory product list expans… | 0.85 | pending | 2026-04-24 | |
| pred-2026-04-10-194 | Iranian authorities will NOT issue any of the specified response types (formal counter-statement, diplomatic n… | 0.35 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-10-193 | By April 20, 2026, Iranian authorities (IRGC, Foreign Ministry, or Supreme Leader's office) will issue at leas… | 0.91 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-09-192 | By June 4, 2026, fewer than 3 US states will publicly announce or formally launch corporate securities enforce… | 0.35 | pending | 2026-06-04 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-09-191 | By June 4, 2026, at least 3 US states (most likely from NY, CA, MA, IL, CO, or WA) will publicly announce or f… | 0.67 | pending | 2026-06-04 | |
| pred-2026-04-09-190 | By April 22, 2026, at least one party (United States or Iran) will publicly announce withdrawal, suspension, o… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-22 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-09-189 | By April 22, 2026, neither the United States nor Iran will publicly announce withdrawal, suspension, or termin… | 0.74 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-22 | |
| pred-2026-04-09-188 | March 2026 US CPI (all items, year-over-year) prints below 3.0% when released April 10–11, 2026. | 0.40 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-09-187 | March 2026 US CPI (all items, year-over-year) prints at or above 3.0% when released approximately April 10–11,… | 0.67 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-186 | Lebanon will avoid all three crisis scenarios: it will maintain formal government continuity with any replacem… | 0.47 | active | 2026-10-08 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-08-185 | Lebanon will experience at least one of: (a) formal government collapse with failure to form a replacement wit… | 0.57 | active | 2026-10-08 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-184 | US March 2026 headline CPI (year-over-year) will print BELOW 3.2% when released approximately April 10, 2026 | 0.39 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-08-183 | US March 2026 headline CPI (year-over-year) will print at or above 3.2% when released approximately April 10,… | 0.61 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-182 | The US-Iran ceasefire will break by April 22, 2026, with either US or Iranian forces conducting offensive stri… | 0.32 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-22 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-08-181 | The US-Iran ceasefire will hold through April 22, 2026, without either US or Iranian forces conducting offensi… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-22 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-179 | By June 1, 2026, the US-Iran diplomatic process will remain in purely renewable mode: no formal framework agre… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-01 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-178 | The March 2026 US headline CPI (year-over-year) will print BELOW 3.2% when released during the week of April 7… | 0.43 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-08-177 | The March 2026 US headline CPI (year-over-year) will print at or above 3.2% when released during the week of A… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-11 | |
| pred-2026-04-08-176 | The first round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad (April 11–15, 2026) WILL produce a publicly announced joint comm… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-08-175 | The first round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad (approximately April 11–15, 2026) will NOT produce a publicly an… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-15 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-174 | Lebanon's post-ceasefire government will formally collapse between March 2026 and June 2, 2026 — manifesting a… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-02 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-173 | Lebanon's post-ceasefire government will remain formally intact through June 2, 2026 — no formal coalition wit… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-06-02 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-172 | The US and Iran WILL produce at least one of the following by April 21, 2026: a written diplomatic framework,… | 0.22 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-21 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-171 | The US and Iran will NOT produce any written diplomatic framework, joint communiqué, or publicly announced sch… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-21 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-170 | US headline CPI for March 2026 will print below 3.5% year-over-year when released approximately April 10, 2026 | 0.42 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-21 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-169 | US headline CPI for March 2026 will print at or above 3.5% year-over-year when released approximately April 10… | 0.63 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-21 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-168 | At least one formal US government instrument — an executive order, DoD directive, or binding interagency frame… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-167 | No formal US government instrument — whether executive order, DoD directive, or binding interagency framework… | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-31 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-166 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, 2026 (released April 10, 2026) will come in AT OR ABOVE… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-165 | US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, 2026 (released April 10, 2026) will come in BELOW 230,0… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-04-07-164 | By April 14, 2026, the Pakistan-brokered US-Iran diplomatic channel will NOT produce a publicly announced outp… | 0.35 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-14 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-07-163 | By April 14, 2026, the Pakistan-brokered US-Iran diplomatic channel will produce at least one publicly announc… | 0.65 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-14 | |
| pred-2026-04-06-162 | Commercial Bab al-Mandeb traffic will recover to sustained levels above 50% of pre-October 2023 baseline by Ma… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-18 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-06-161 | De facto majority halt of commercial Bab al-Mandeb transits—defined as sustained traffic at ≤50% of pre-Octobe… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-18 | |
| pred-2026-04-06-159 | Israel will publicly and explicitly acknowledge conducting at least one direct kinetic military strike on Iran… | 0.38 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-20 | |
| pred-2026-04-06-158 | The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 CPI report will show headline inflation below 3.5% year-over-year | 0.37 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-04-06-157 | The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 CPI report (expected release ~April 10, 2026) will show headline in… | 0.63 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-156 | At least one publicly announced interim agreement, confidence-building measure, or joint statement will emerge… | 0.40 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-29-155 | No publicly announced interim agreement, confidence-building measure, or joint statement will emerge from the… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-153 | The OBR's Spring Statement (March 31, 2026) will publish a UK 2026 GDP growth forecast strictly below 1.0%. | 0.62 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-02 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-152 | Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement will NOT include blanket tariffs of ≥10% on any of EU, Japan, So… | 0.26 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-29-151 | Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement will include blanket tariffs of ≥10% on imports from at least on… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-03 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-150 | HM Government will announce zero or one material privatization initiative by 2026-12-31, failing to reach the… | 0.38 | active | 2027-01-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-29-149 | HM Government will formally announce at least two material privatization initiatives — including NHS trust tra… | 0.65 | active | 2027-01-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-147 | The US Department of Defense (via CENTCOM) will publicly confirm at least one new offensive airstrike against… | 0.89 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-06 | |
| pred-2026-03-29-145 | The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March 2026 will print below 48.0 upon release circa April 1, 2026, confirming… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-03 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-143 | Neither a binding UNSC humanitarian access resolution (or emergency framework) specifically for Lebanon nor a… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-142 | At least one publicly announced meeting, de-escalation framework, or formal diplomatic signal between the US a… | 0.28 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-11 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-28-141 | No publicly announced meeting, de-escalation framework, or formal diplomatic signal between the US and Iran wi… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-11 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-140 | The US March 2026 non-farm payrolls report (released April 3, 2026) will show job gains of at least 150,000, c… | 0.51 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-28-139 | The US March 2026 non-farm payrolls report (released April 3, 2026) will show job gains BELOW 150,000, while t… | 0.54 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-03 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-138 | Iran will publicly announce an explicit fee structure, passage permit regime, or formal transit agreement for… | 0.28 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-28-137 | Iran will NOT publicly announce an explicit fee structure, passage permit regime, or formal transit agreement… | 0.85 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-136 | The OBR will maintain or revise upward its UK 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% or higher in the Spring Stateme… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-28-135 | The OBR will revise its UK 2026 GDP growth forecast below 1.0% in the Spring Statement (March 30-31, 2026), sp… | 0.72 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-05 | |
| pred-2026-03-28-134 | The US Liberation Day tariff package announced April 2, 2026 will be implemented cleanly on schedule — by Apri… | 0.68 | pending | 2026-04-11 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-28-133 | The US Liberation Day tariff package announced April 2, 2026 will NOT be implemented cleanly on schedule — by… | 0.75 | pending | 2026-04-11 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-131 | At least one of BYD, NIO, Li Auto, or XPENG will publicly announce production cuts, factory suspensions, or wo… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-08 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-130 | The BEA's February 2026 PCE release will show core PCE year-over-year BELOW 2.5%, OR no Federal Reserve offici… | 0.31 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-27-129 | The BEA's February 2026 PCE release (~2026-03-28) will show core PCE year-over-year at or above 2.5%, AND at l… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-128 | The OBR will maintain its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast at or above 1.5% in the Spring Statement 2026, with only… | 0.37 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-01 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-27-127 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast to below 1.5% in the Spring Statement (due 2026-03-31), do… | 0.63 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-01 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-126 | By May 15, 2026, the EU Council will formally incorporate the European Parliament's stated conditions into the… | 0.38 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-27-125 | By May 15, 2026, the EU Council will advance formal ratification proceedings without incorporating the Europea… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-001 | By April 7, 2026, at least one of the following will occur: (a) a formal GCC joint communiqué condemning or de… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-07 | |
| pred-2026-03-27-122 | The UK Spring Statement (delivered by 2026-03-31) will NOT announce net reductions in working-age welfare bene… | 0.38 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-27-121 | The UK Spring Statement (delivered by 2026-03-31) will announce net reductions in working-age welfare benefit… | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-001 | By October 31, 2026, the US-Iran military escalation will produce a formal Congressional war-powers vote (AUMF… | 0.50 | active | 2026-10-31 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-120 | Fidesz wins fewer than 133 seats in the April 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election, failing to retain its two… | 0.38 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-119 | Fidesz wins at least 133 of 199 parliamentary seats in the April 2026 Hungarian election, retaining its two-th… | 0.64 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-118 | By 2026-04-09, Iran will NOT formally announce either Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions/mandatory transit… | 0.58 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-09 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-117 | By 2026-04-09, Iran will formally announce at least one of: (a) Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions or manda… | 0.57 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-09 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-116 | The February 2026 PCE price index will print below 2.8% year-over-year. | 0.55 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-115 | The February 2026 PCE price index (released ~March 28, 2026) will print at or above 2.8% year-over-year. | 0.62 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-114 | The United States and Iran will publicly announce the opening of formal direct bilateral nuclear negotiations… | 0.18 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-113 | The United States and Iran will NOT publicly announce the opening of formal direct bilateral nuclear negotiati… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-112 | The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will report February 2026 core PCE inflation below 2.7% year-over-year when… | 0.44 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-111 | The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will report February 2026 core PCE inflation (ex food and energy) at or abo… | 0.64 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-26-110 | Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement will NOT include a publicly stated blanket tariff rate of 10% or… | 0.22 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-09 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-26-109 | Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement will include a publicly stated blanket tariff rate of 10% or hig… | 0.80 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-09 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-001 | Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22, 2026 (reported Thursday March 27, 2026) will come in at o… | 0.57 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-27 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-108 | The UK government's proposed ban on cryptocurrency political donations will NOT pass second reading in the Hou… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-25-107 | The UK government's proposed ban on cryptocurrency political donations will pass second reading in the House o… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-106 | By April 8, 2026, the US and Iran WILL publicly confirm a scheduled direct or Oman-mediated bilateral meeting… | 0.23 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-08 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-25-105 | By April 8, 2026, the US and Iran will NOT publicly confirm a scheduled direct or Oman-mediated bilateral meet… | 0.87 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-08 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-104 | The announced 6-day junior doctors strike in England will be suspended, averted, or interrupted by a governmen… | 0.65 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-14 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-25-103 | The announced 6-day junior doctors strike in England will proceed for at least 4 of its 6 scheduled days witho… | 0.79 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-14 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-101 | Pakistan-mediated US-Iran contacts will NOT produce a publicly announced bilateral meeting, formal ceasefire t… | 0.85 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-100 | The US February 2026 core PCE price index (year-over-year) will print below 2.6% when released on March 28, 20… | 0.40 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-25-099 | The US February 2026 core PCE price index (year-over-year) will print at or above 2.6% when released on March… | 0.62 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-25-098 | The Chancellor will announce a formal, named revision to the UK fiscal stability rule—altering its core parame… | 0.15 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-27 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-25-097 | The OBR Spring Statement (March 26, 2026) will certify UK fiscal headroom below £5bn against the stability rul… | 0.80 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-27 | |
| pred-2026-03-24-096 | TTF natural gas front-month spot price will close above €75/MWh on fewer than 6 trading sessions (i.e., on 5 o… | 0.58 | pending | 2026-04-14 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-24-095 | TTF natural gas front-month spot price will close above €75/MWh on at least 6 of the 15 trading sessions from… | 0.72 | pending | 2026-04-14 | |
| pred-2026-03-24-093 | By April 7, 2026, no formal public confirmation of direct or Pakistan-mediated US-Iran diplomatic talks will b… | 0.73 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-07 | |
| pred-2026-03-24-092 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast downward by less than 0.5 percentage points (or not downwa… | 0.28 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-27 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-24-091 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast downward by at least 0.5 percentage points from its Autumn… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-27 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-090 | A formal ceasefire agreement or publicly announced binding de-escalation framework between Iran and the United… | 0.27 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-23-089 | No formal ceasefire agreement or publicly announced binding de-escalation framework between Iran and the Unite… | 0.82 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-087 | The UK Spring Statement on March 26, 2026 will announce welfare and/or disability benefit cuts or eligibility… | 0.84 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-085 | The April 2, 2026 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariff announcement will include a universal baseline tariff of… | 0.81 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-03 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-084 | The Supreme Court of Canada will issue a substantive ruling striking down or substantially limiting Quebec's B… | 0.10 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-18 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-23-083 | The Supreme Court of Canada will neither issue a substantive ruling striking down nor grant leave to appeal in… | 0.93 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-18 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-082 | By April 6, 2026, there will be NO publicly confirmed instances of direct or indirect US-Iran diplomatic commu… | 0.52 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-06 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-23-081 | By April 6, 2026, at least one publicly confirmed instance of direct or indirect US-Iran diplomatic communicat… | 0.54 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-06 | |
| pred-2026-03-23-080 | The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report February 2026 core PCE price index below 2.8% year-over-year when… | 0.35 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-23-079 | The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report February 2026 core PCE price index at or above 2.8% year-over-year… | 0.70 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-078 | By May 15, 2026, the EU will FAIL to formally approve a Ukraine financial support package of €35bn or more. Hu… | 0.40 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-22-077 | By May 15, 2026, the EU will formally approve a Ukraine financial support package of €35bn or more — either th… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-075 | The BEA will report US February 2026 PCE price index year-over-year at or above 2.6% when released in the fina… | 0.61 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-074 | The OBR's Spring Statement 2026 will project UK GDP growth for calendar year 2026 ABOVE 1.5%, either maintaini… | 0.22 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-22-073 | The OBR's Spring Statement 2026 forecast will project UK GDP growth for calendar year 2026 at or below 1.5%, r… | 0.78 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-072 | The European Union will not formally announce a retaliatory tariff package against US goods—with specific name… | 0.36 | pending | 2026-05-03 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-22-071 | The European Union will formally announce a retaliatory tariff package against US goods — with specific named… | 0.64 | pending | 2026-05-03 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-069 | Iran will NOT formally suspend IAEA inspector access nor announce NPT withdrawal within 14 days of the Natanz… | 0.88 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-05 | |
| pred-2026-03-22-068 | The BEA's February 2026 core PCE price index release (~March 28, 2026) will show core PCE inflation below 2.8%… | 0.43 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-22-067 | The BEA's February 2026 core PCE price index release (~March 28, 2026) will show core PCE inflation at or abov… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-21-065 | By 2026-05-01, Iran will NOT formally declare a nuclear-threshold posture (IAEA inspector suspension, 90%+ wea… | 0.68 | pending | 2026-05-01 | |
| pred-2026-03-21-063 | The February 2026 US core PCE price index will print at or above 2.5% year-over-year when released on or aroun… | 0.73 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-21-062 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast to 1.0% or higher in the Spring Statement (March 26, 2026)… | 0.35 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-21-061 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast below 1.0% in the Spring Statement (expected March 26, 202… | 0.65 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-21-060 | TTF natural gas spot prices will average BELOW €55/MWh during April 1–28, 2026, despite Qatar LNG facility dis… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-05-05 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-21-059 | TTF natural gas spot prices will average above €55/MWh across the April 1–28, 2026 window, driven by Qatar LNG… | 0.65 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-05 | |
| pred-2026-03-21-058 | The OBR will revise UK 2026 GDP growth forecast to above 1.0% in the March 26, 2026 Spring Statement, and Chan… | 0.36 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-04 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-21-056 | The right-wing/centrist candidate (led by Rachida Dati or equivalent center-right alternative) wins the 2026 P… | 0.25 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-21-055 | The left-wing coalition (PS/Greens/NUPES-aligned) retains the Paris mayoralty in the 2026 municipal elections,… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-20-053 | The European Commission will NOT formally invoke the Gas Security of Supply Regulation (2017/1938 or successor… | 0.47 | pending | 2026-05-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-20-052 | The UK Spring Statement on 26 March 2026 will announce above-CPI uprating of Universal Credit and/or Housing B… | 0.40 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-20-051 | The UK Spring Statement on 26 March 2026 will announce a real-terms freeze or below-CPI uprating of Universal… | 0.62 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-20-050 | February 2026 core PCE inflation will print below 2.7% year-over-year, remaining flat or declining relative to… | 0.42 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-20-049 | February 2026 core PCE inflation (released ~March 28, 2026) will print at or above 2.7% year-over-year, exceed… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-10 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-048 | Fewer than 2 GCC member states beyond Qatar (i.e., 0 or 1 states) will formally downgrade, suspend, or sever d… | 0.56 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-14 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-047 | At least 2 GCC member states beyond Qatar (most likely Saudi Arabia + Bahrain or UAE) will formally downgrade,… | 0.44 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-14 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-046 | The OBR will maintain its 2026 UK GDP growth projection at 1.5% or above in its Spring 2026 forecast published… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-27 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-045 | The OBR will revise its 2026 UK GDP growth projection below 1.5% in its Spring 2026 forecast published alongsi… | 0.76 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-27 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-044 | European TTF natural gas spot price will close above €45/MWh on 2 or fewer of the 5 trading days from March 20… | 0.68 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-26 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-043 | European TTF natural gas spot price will close above €45/MWh on at least 3 of the 5 trading days from March 20… | 0.80 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-26 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-001 | Between 2026 and 2028, the securitization of civilian governance domains — trade policy, technology regulation… | 0.68 | active | 2028-03-19 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-042 | By April 16, 2026, the Japanese government will NOT publicly reject, formally challenge, or announce an offici… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-16 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-041 | The Japanese government will publicly reject, formally challenge, or announce a counter-proposal to the report… | 0.72 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-16 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-040 | Between March 19 and April 2, 2026, Iranian state forces (IRGC or Iranian military, not proxies) will NOT exec… | 0.57 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-02 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-039 | Between March 19 and April 2, 2026, Iranian state forces (IRGC or Iranian military, not proxies) will execute… | 0.54 | resolved-correct | 2026-04-02 | |
| pred-2026-03-19-038 | The FOMC's March 2026 SEP will show the median federal funds rate projection for end-2026 BELOW 3.75% (implyin… | 0.26 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-19-037 | The FOMC's March 2026 SEP (released March 19) will show the median federal funds rate projection for end-2026… | 0.74 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-20 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-036 | OPEC+ will NOT convene an unscheduled emergency ministerial meeting AND will NOT issue a formal communiqué ann… | 0.20 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-035 | OPEC+ will convene an unscheduled emergency ministerial meeting OR issue a formal communiqué announcing a prod… | 0.78 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-034 | The OBR forecast published at the UK Spring Statement on March 26, 2026 will show UK GDP growth for calendar y… | 0.41 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-26 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-033 | The OBR forecast published at the UK Spring Statement on March 26, 2026 will show UK GDP growth for calendar y… | 0.81 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-26 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-032 | Iran or an Iran-directed proxy will NOT execute a publicly confirmed kinetic attack on Gulf Arab energy infras… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-01 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-031 | Iran or an Iran-directed proxy will execute a publicly confirmed kinetic attack on Gulf Arab energy infrastruc… | 0.30 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-01 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-030 | The United States will announce or commence a direct kinetic military strike against Iranian sovereign territo… | 0.28 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-029 | The United States will NOT announce or commence a direct kinetic military strike against Iranian sovereign ter… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-028 | The Eurozone composite flash PMI for March 2026 will NOT print below 49.0; instead, the composite will reach 4… | 0.36 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-25 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-027 | The Eurozone composite flash PMI for March 2026 will print below 49.0, signaling economic contraction, with th… | 0.67 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-25 | |
| pred-2026-03-18-026 | The March 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections will show the median 2026 rate-cut projection at 3 or more… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-18-025 | The March 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections will show the median 2026 rate-cut projection at 2 or fewe… | 0.82 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-20 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-001 | By December 2026, the US federal government will have imposed behavioral or work-activity requirements as a co… | 0.65 | active | 2026-12-31 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-024 | The United States WILL execute or publicly authorize direct military strikes on Iranian sovereign territory by… | 0.28 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-17-023 | The United States will NOT execute or publicly authorize direct military strikes on Iranian sovereign territor… | 0.70 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-04-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-022 | A publicly announced operative agreement (ceasefire extension, hostage deal, or binding framework document wit… | 0.55 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-17-021 | No publicly announced operative agreement (ceasefire extension, hostage deal, or binding framework document wi… | 0.60 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-020 | The Bank of England MPC will either cut the Bank Rate below 4.5% to 4.25% OR the MPC vote will feature 3 or mo… | 0.28 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-20 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-17-019 | The Bank of England MPC will hold the Bank Rate at 4.5% at its March 19-20 meeting, with a vote split of at le… | 0.76 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-20 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-018 | An official announcement of a US-China presidential summit will be made by May 1, 2026 | 0.27 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-01 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-17-017 | No publicly announced US-China presidential summit or scheduled Xi-Trump direct bilateral communication will b… | 0.80 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-05-01 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-016 | The US Supreme Court will maintain its stay on termination of Temporary Protected Status through March 31, 202… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-17-015 | The US Supreme Court will NOT issue a stay or preliminary injunction halting the administration's termination… | 0.58 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-31 | |
| pred-2026-03-17-014 | The Spring Statement (delivered by 31 March 2026) will announce a commitment to increase UK defence spending a… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-16-012 | By 2026-06-30, the Strait of Hormuz will experience a documented disruption event (closure, blockade attempt,… | 0.20 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-16-011 | Tanker transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at least 40% below pre-conflict baseline throug… | 0.73 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-06-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-16-010 | The UK Spring Statement 2026 will announce a nominal increase in NHS England spending allocation of 2.5-4.5% f… | 0.68 | pending | 2026-04-07 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-16-008 | Brent crude will settle at $96-104 per barrel on 2026-03-28, with Hormuz disruption scenario driving a 12-18%… | 0.58 | resolved-incorrect | 2026-03-28 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-16-007 | Brent crude oil will close above $95/barrel on at least 7 of the 10 trading days spanning March 17–28, 2026, g… | 0.63 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-28 | |
| pred-2026-03-15-006 | By 2026-12-31, at least 5 major OECD democracies will publicly report that their ombudsman office cannot inves… | 0.62 | active | 2026-12-31 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-15-004 | By 2026-09-30, average US tariffs on imported manufactures will increase to 12%+ (from ~8% baseline), while pu… | 0.72 | active | 2026-09-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-15-003 | At least one major G7 economy will announce new import tariffs or domestic industrial subsidies in Q2-Q3 2026… | 0.93 | active | 2026-09-30 | |
| pred-2026-03-15-002 | The EU ETS carbon allowance spot price will remain between 80-100 €/ton for at least 75% of trading days from… | 0.70 | active | 2026-09-30 | no tradition weights |
| pred-2026-03-15-001 | Between 2026 and 2028, governance movements across ideological lines will increasingly adopt structurally theo… | 0.72 | active | 2028-03-15 | |
| pred-2026-03-13-001 | Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15, 2026 (reported Thursday March 20, 2026) will remain below… | 0.68 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-20 | |
| pred-2026-03-11-001 | The FOMC will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at its March 18-19, 2026 meeting, maintaining the current… | 0.88 | resolved-correct | 2026-03-19 | |