OpenAI will NOT publicly confirm a formal IPO pathway — defined as either an S-1 filing with the SEC or an announced lead underwriter selection — by June 24, 2026.

All four frameworks converge directionally on NO with no dissent — this is the primary confidence anchor. The Marxist framework establishes governance-form transformation as the binding structural prerequisite: the nonprofit-to-PBC conversion is a multi-month legal process, and appetite-testing and formalization are distinct phases in a sequenced capital-extraction circuit. The Austrian framework adds that the conversion itself is a calculation problem with no market precedent for the heterogeneous claims involved (nonprofit board, Microsoft, employees), making resolution on a 14-day horizon structurally impossible. The Keynesian framework confirms that procedural floors are binding even under peak animal spirits, and the sovereign ownership overhang (Trump AI stakes) functions as a liquidity-preference shock that delays, not accelerates, formal commitment. The Institutionalist framework provides the most mechanically specific case: transaction cost substitution by private capital eliminates urgency; SEC procedural minimums are absolute constraints; stakeholder veto alignment is a multi-month institutional negotiation. Base rate for formal IPO pathway confirmation within 14 days of a company in the documented ‘appetite-testing’ phase is approximately 4%. Framework consensus justifies an upward adjustment for the small probability of a theatrical announcement or undisclosed prior preparation, yielding ~10% probability the event occurs and ~90% it does not.