pred-2026-03-15-002
The EU ETS carbon allowance spot price will remain between 80-100 €/ton for at least 75% of trading days from March 15, 2026 through September 30, 2026
- created
- 2026-03-15
- resolves
- 2026-09-30
- base rate
- 0.65
- meta-confidence
- medium
Evidence for (5)
- Structural upward trend in EU ETS prices over past 5 years (2020-2025) driven by Phase 4 allocation constraints
- CBAM implementation phase-in reduces risk of price collapse below 80€, increases carbon cost transparency
- Policy consensus shifting toward 'mixed policy' approach (ETS + complementary regulations) rather than ETS replacement, maintaining price support
- Current market valuation (~75-80€/ton Feb 2025) suggests 5-30% appreciation is baseline expectation
- Industrial competitiveness concerns drive need for moderate pricing equilibrium around 80-100€ range to support feasibility of sectoral regulations
Evidence against (5)
- Economic recession or industrial contraction could suppress emissions demand and allowance prices below 80€
- Technological acceleration (renewables, efficiency) could reduce compliance costs and create downward pressure
- Political backlash against energy costs could trigger policy intervention (strategic reserves, allocation changes)
- Speculative overshoots above 100€ or extended dips below 80€ possible from macro shocks or trading dynamics
- Potential linkage or convergence with other carbon markets could introduce structural shifts
Reasoning chain
EU ETS prices exhibit 15-25% quarterly volatility around upward trend. Current equilibrium (~75-80€/ton) reflects Phase 4 constraints and CBAM cost-pass-through expectations. The 80-100€ band represents realistic 6-month price discovery range given: (1) time horizon insufficient for major structural changes, (2) institutional commitment to ETS as primary mechanism despite alternatives debate, (3) policy framing shift toward ‘complementary’ regulations rather than substitutes suggests 80-100€ economically viable, (4) historical precedent for prices holding within ±20% of trend. The ‘alternatives grammar’ evolution—where sectoral mandates are positioned as supplements not alternatives to carbon pricing—implies policymakers accept this price range as compatible with industrial policy objectives. Tail risks exist (recession, breakthroughs, political shocks) but 75% threshold accommodates expected volatility while capturing directional view.
Falsification criteria
Prediction is false if, during the specified period, the daily closing price (ICE Futures Europe) falls below 80 €/ton or exceeds 100 €/ton on more than 25% of trading days, or if the price breaches these boundaries on more than 15 consecutive trading days