pred-2026-03-16-008
Brent crude will settle at $96-104 per barrel on 2026-03-28, with Hormuz disruption scenario driving a 12-18% premium above baseline equilibrium pricing
- created
- 2026-03-16
- resolves
- 2026-03-28
- resolved
- 2026-03-29
- outcome
- 0
- brier
- 0.3364
- base rate
- 0.62
- meta-confidence
- low
Evidence for (5)
- Hormuz carries ~21% of global petroleum trade; any disruption triggers immediate supply shock premium
- Historical precedent: 2019 Aramco drone attacks caused $20+ intraday spike; 2020 Soleimani strike: +$10 in one session
- Market structure favors rapid repricing on geopolitical risk; options markets typically embed 5-15% political risk premium in energy
- 12-day timeline insufficient for demand destruction or strategic petroleum reserve mitigation
- Current baseline (early 2026) likely $82-88 absent disruption scenario; disruption premium justifies $14-20 differential
Evidence against (5)
- If disruption is threatened but not immediate, market may discount probability; no hard evidence presented of imminent blockade
- OPEC+ spare capacity (Saudi Arabia ~2-3M bpd) can partially offset short-term supply loss within 5-7 days
- Global storage levels at elevated capacity; demand elasticity allows rapid adjustment for 2-week horizon
- 12 days may be sufficient for diplomatic resolution if threat is negotiating leverage rather than committed action
- Speculation-driven trading could amplify or dampen actual supply fundamentals
Reasoning chain
Baseline Brent crude absent geopolitical premium estimated at $82-88/bbl in early 2026 (accounting for post-Ukraine normalization and OPEC+ production). Hormuz disruption threat injects binary risk: either (a) disruption materializes or becomes imminent, triggering 20-30% spike within 48 hours and holding elevated for 7-12 days before partial stabilization, or (b) threat recedes or proves hollow, with prices retreating toward baseline ±5%. Central expectation splits difference: 58% probability of sustained disruption premium yielding $95-105 settlement; 42% probability prices stabilize near $85-90. Weighted mean: $96/bbl. Supply inelasticity over 12-day horizon (cannot source alternative crude or reduce demand substantially) favors persistence of political risk premium once established. Historical base rate for Hormuz geopolitical incidents translating to 15%+ price moves within 14 days: ~62% when explicitly threatened.
Falsification criteria
Actual settlement price of Brent crude on 2026-03-28 closes outside the $92-108 range (outside ±6% of $100 midpoint)
Brier breakdown
Post-mortem
Auto-resolved (falsified, confidence=0.95). Evidence: Brent crude settled at $112.57 per barrel on March 28, 2026 — well above the prediction's $96-104 target range and outside the falsification boundary of $92-108. A Hormuz disruption did materialize (Iran's IRGC imposed yuan-denominated transit fees on tankers, disrupting ~17.8 mb/d), but the resulting premium was far larger than the predicted 12-18%. The combined Hormuz toll mechanism and a two-chokepoint scenario (plus Houthi Red Sea threats) drove Brent's March gain to ~51% month-over-month, the largest single-month surge since mid-2021. Sources: https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/03/28/oil-price-march-28-2026-brent-112-wti-100/?lang=en; https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-03-27-2026/. Reasoning: The falsification criterion is clear: settlement outside $92-108. Brent closed at $112.57, which is ~$4.57 above the upper bound of $108 (roughly 4.2% above it). The prediction correctly anticipated a Hormuz disruption scenario, but severely underestimated its magnitude. The predicted 12-18% premium above a ~$85-88 baseline equilibrium would yield ~$96-104; the actual premium was far larger. Because the settlement price falls unambiguously outside the specified falsification range, the verdict is falsified.