The London diplomatic talks on Ukraine will NOT produce a formal written ceasefire proposal, negotiation framework, or roadmap document by June 22, 2026; the output will be limited to a joint communiqué, unilateral statements, or no document at all.

Four frameworks converge on the same prediction direction — the primary confidence signal. The Marxist framework identifies the war-economy extraction circuit as structurally opposed to a binding document; the Institutionalist identifies constitutional lock-ins and transaction cost differentials as decisive; the Keynesian identifies deficient aggregate effective demand for commitment under Knightian uncertainty; the Austrian identifies the knowledge problem and Russia’s absence as epistemic barriers. Framework disagreement concerns only mechanism, not direction. The Austrian’s low stated confidence (0.28) is down-weighted in tradition_weights and interpreted as framework self-doubt about its applicability here, not as a directional disagreement. The key remaining uncertainty is the Institutionalist’s ‘symbolic decoupling’ blind spot: a document styled as a framework but lacking verifiable commitments would technically falsify the prediction while being substantively equivalent to a communiqué. Base rate of 0.80 adjusted slightly upward to 0.82 given strength of cross-framework convergence and multiple mutually reinforcing mechanisms; slight downward pressure from the symbolic-decoupling residual.