June 2026 US headline CPI will print at ≥0.3% month-over-month (annualized ≥3.6%), confirming accelerating tariff-driven consumer price pass-through ahead of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

All four frameworks converge on YES, with confidence ranging 0.67-0.72. The convergence itself is a signal: each framework reaches the same directional prediction via distinct causal pathways (class-power pricing umbrella; buffer-depletion timing; markup-chain cost-push; contractual renegotiation lag exhaustion), which substantially reduces the probability that any single framework’s blind spot contaminates the aggregate. The 1838 two-buffers analysis is load-bearing across all four: pre-tariff inventory was the carrying-cost buffer, now exhausted; restocking at post-tariff prices is the reproduction-lag buffer, now firing. June 2026 sits at 12-15 months post-full-implementation — the empirically validated exhaustion window from both the 2018-2019 Section 301 episode and the 2016-2018 UK post-Brexit sterling depreciation (the closest structural analogue for near-universal coverage). The Apple price-hike signal is the institutional critical-mass indicator: once the anchor firm moves, the coordinated holdout equilibrium collapses. The Minsky asymmetry (Keynesian) is the key timing anchor: the demand-destruction that could abort pass-through requires balance-sheet deleveraging that operates on a Q3-Q4 horizon, not a one-month horizon. Therefore the June print captures costs already locked into the supply chain, not yet checked by demand compression. Base rate of 0.57 for ≥0.3% MoM in a tariff/inflationary environment adjusted upward to 0.71 given the strength of convergence, buffer-exhaustion timing, and anchor-firm signal.