The Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by 25bp at the July 29–30, 2026 FOMC meeting, AND CME FedWatch will price that outcome above 75% probability by July 15, 2026.

All four frameworks independently arrive at the same directional prediction (hike occurs; FedWatch crosses 75%), which is a strong convergence signal. The institutionalist framework carries the most explanatory weight for the compound question because it directly models the FedWatch-as-commitment-device mechanism — the same path-dependent credibility logic that makes the hike likely is the logic that drives futures pricing above 75%. The Marxist framework explains the institutional direction (class-aligned monetary tightening) and the self-referential pricing circuit. The Austrian framework explains why oil-price deflation will not deter the decision. The Keynesian framework introduces the most uncertainty by flagging Minsky instability and noting that futures pricing is animal-spirits-driven, not an oracle — this uniquely captures timing risk on the 75% FedWatch sub-condition. The compound nature of the prediction reduces confidence from the base hike probability (~0.82) to approximately 0.70, primarily because the FedWatch sub-condition is contingent on specific early-July Warsh communication events that are probable but not certain. Base rate (hawkish chair + PCE >130bp above target + no recession signal = hike delivery) is estimated at 0.72; framework convergence provides modest upward adjustment to 0.70 for the compound question accounting for the additional timing constraint on the FedWatch component.