The ICC Assembly of States Parties will not formally convene a special session or activate the Article 47 independent expert panel process to consider suspension or removal of Prosecutor Karim Khan by June 23, 2026.

All four frameworks converge on the same outcome via distinct causal paths, which is a strong signal. The Institutionalist framework is most precisely calibrated to the procedural specifics: zero precedent for Article 47 activation creates constitutively uncertain transaction costs — the first invocation carries costs that cannot be modeled from a template that does not exist — and the existing Bureau suspension is structurally rational as an intermediate action that preserves institutional legitimacy without committing to formal process. The Marxist framework explains why formal action is not merely costly but actively contrary to the interests of the actors most capable of driving it: transparency about the political character of Khan’s suspension would expose the ICC as a selective legitimacy-granting instrument, undermining its core disciplinary utility against peripheral actors. These two mechanisms are jointly necessary — institutionalist path dependence explains capability constraints; Marxist interest analysis explains why those constraints are exploited rather than overcome. The Keynesian framework adds a coordination-failure-under-uncertainty layer: states face a probability distribution over Article 47 outcomes with undefined variance (zero precedent), producing rational liquidity preference (uncommitted political capital over formal commitment) and a paradox of thrift dynamic where individual passivity collectively depletes institutional accountability. The Austrian framework models the dispersed-preference aggregation failure: 124 heterogeneous states cannot produce a coordinated action signal within 14 days without a price-equivalent mechanism, and the existing oversight channels colonize the response space that informal entrepreneurship might otherwise occupy. The convergence of all four frameworks — each with independent causal logic — elevates confidence above any single-framework estimate. The base rate of 0.02 is derived from: zero successful Article 47/46 initiations in 24 years, no comparable international organization having activated a formal prosecutor removal in under 14 days across at least 15 political-pressure episodes surveyed in the historical precedents.