The Housing Bill will remain unsigned by Trump through July 8, 2026. Trump will maintain the SAVE Act linkage as a holding position, the SAVE Act will not clear any credible Senate procedural path in the 14-day window, and no face-saving executive off-ramp will materialize in time to permit a pre-July-8 signing.

All four frameworks independently converge on ‘unsigned through July 8’ — a rare four-way agreement that substantially raises confidence above any single-framework reading. The core argument is mechanically simple: the stated precondition (SAVE Act Senate passage) is institutionally blocked within the 14-day window via filibuster, making the linkage a holding position rather than a genuine exchange. The Institutionalist framework most precisely captures the veto-by-inaction constitutional void and Trump’s path-dependent behavioral grammar. The Keynesian framework adds that the unsigned bill is instrumentally more valuable as grievance than as policy — the political off-ramp is narrative, not legislative. The Marxist and Keynesian frameworks converge on the asymmetric cost distribution: the demand drag (deferred construction, suppressed animal spirits) falls on diffuse housing-market participants while the coalition benefit (electoral framing, SAVE Act signal) accrues to a concentrated bloc. The Austrian framework contributes the knowledge-problem observation: Congress cannot read Trump’s reservation price, so cannot construct a credible pre-emptive counter-offer that would resolve the standoff before July 8. Historical base rate from analogous Trump hostage episodes (government shutdowns, DACA linkages) sets the prior at ~0.72 that a legislatively-blocked condition is held through a 14-day window. Framework convergence adjusts this upward to 0.74. The primary uncertainty is the idiosyncratic-signing tail: Trump has broken from structural incentives when approval ratings or media cycles triggered unexpected pivots.