The UK government will formally announce targeted sanctions — designations, asset freezes, or trade restrictions — against Israeli settlers or settlement-linked entities over West Bank activity by June 21, 2026.

The four frameworks converge on one key structural fact — if any announcement occurs it will be narrow — but diverge on whether it occurs at all within 14 days. The Marxist framework (highest confidence, 0.65) predicts 15–20% probability of consequential action, grounding the structural floor. The Institutionalist framework (0.28 confidence) identifies the specific chokepoints: US pre-notification norm, OFSI finalization, Cabinet sign-off — each of which typically requires more than 14 days from the ‘readying’ stage. The Keynesian lens adds political liquidity preference under leadership pressure as a second-order brake. The Austrian framework, the lone dissenter (0.62, leans YES), identifies real price-signal convergence — domestic Labour demand plus EU bandwagon — but its own analysis concedes the knowledge problem limits any announcement to narrow Magnitsky-style individual designations, not the broader ‘trade restrictions’ tier the question includes. Weighting Marxist (0.35) and Institutionalist (0.30) most heavily on grounds that they offer the most mechanism-specific prediction for this institutional context: Marxist at ~22% probability of formal announcement, Institutionalist at ~25%, Keynesian at ~37%, Austrian at ~62%. Weighted synthesis yields ~31%. Adjusted upward marginally to 0.30 given the Guardian ‘readying’ confirmation signals further preparation than pure ‘rhetoric,’ but downward relative to naive averaging because the two highest-weight frameworks both provide strong structural arguments for sub-30% probability. The base rate of 0.22 reflects the historical pattern of UK governments announcing readiness and then slipping past initial windows under US and institutional constraints.