pred-2026-04-08-178
The March 2026 US headline CPI (year-over-year) will print BELOW 3.2% when released during the week of April 7–11, 2026, as tariff pass-through lags significantly, base effects from March 2025 create disinflation headwinds, and energy prices remain below peak disruption levels.
- created
- 2026-04-08
- resolves
- 2026-04-11
- resolved
- 2026-04-11
- outcome
- 0
- brier
- 0.1849
- base rate
- 0.48
- meta-confidence
- medium
Evidence for (7)
- Tariff pass-through typically requires 6-12 weeks to fully manifest in consumer prices; tariffs implemented late February/early March will not show complete impact in March CPI data
- March 2025 baseline for YoY comparison may have been elevated from prior-year price volatility, creating a difficult comparison that depresses March 2026 YoY reading
- Oil prices (WTI) peaked in January 2026 and moderated in February-March; Iran-Hormuz disruption risk priced in but not sustained at crisis levels; energy component isolated to early-year surge
- Disinflation trend has persisted since mid-2023; momentum in core and headline inflation both pointing downward; 0.57 original confidence suggests high uncertainty on the 3.2% threshold
- February 2026 monthly readings (if available pre-March report) would signal whether momentum supports >3.2% YoY or contradicts it; decelerating monthly pace incompatible with 3.2% headline
- Services inflation (shelter, healthcare, transportation) has been sticky but cooling; goods disinflation continues; goods category weight insufficient to offset services moderation
- Real wages rising moderately; consumer demand not accelerating demand-pull inflation; lagged effects of 2025 rate environment may further cool pricing power
Evidence against (6)
- Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and goods went into effect February 1–4, 2026; eight-week window overlaps March entirely, allowing direct pass-through to retail prices
- Energy prices spiked in early 2026 from Iran-Hormuz closure; March CPI captures full month of elevated energy costs in headline; energy has high weight in headline calculation
- Supply chain disruptions from tariff enforcement could accelerate input cost pass-through into goods prices faster than 6-12 week standard lag
- Original prediction has 0.57 confidence from an informed forecaster; reflects material probability that tariff and energy effects are indeed reflected in March print
- Automotive prices (new and used vehicles) influenced by tariff-related supply constraints; could show month-to-month acceleration
- Goods inflation has been quiescent but tariff shock is exogenous; could re-accelerate goods component despite prior disinflationary trend
Reasoning chain
The original prediction rests on two mechanisms: (1) tariff pass-through, (2) energy cost embedding from Iran-Hormuz disruption. However, tariff implementation timing suggests most of the March pass-through will be incomplete—tariffs were announced with effective dates Feb 1–4, and retail pricing typically lags 4–8 weeks. By April’s release, we will observe only partial pass-through. Energy is more immediate, but oil price spikes occurred in January and moderated by February. March CPI will capture the elevated baseline, but the April 7–11 release will benefit from base effects if March 2025 was a higher-inflation month. The disinflationary momentum from 2024–2025 has not reversed; monthly CPI readings in recent months show sub-trend increases. The original claim’s 0.57 confidence is marginal—only slightly above a coin flip—suggesting the forecaster themselves assigns substantial probability to sub-3.2%. The threshold of 3.2% is notably higher than recent trend (likely 2.8–3.1%); hitting that exact level requires either sustained energy shock OR rapid tariff acceleration. Neither is assured. Tariffs are sticky but need time; energy is volatile but March price levels may not sustain January-peak levels.
Falsification criteria
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March 2026 headline CPI (seasonally adjusted, year-over-year) at or above 3.2%, the counter-claim is false. Data released April 10-11, 2026 is the canonical source.
Brier breakdown
Post-mortem
Auto-resolved (falsified, confidence=0.97). Evidence: The BLS released March 2026 CPI data on April 10, 2026. Headline CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, above the 3.2% threshold in the prediction. The monthly reading was +0.9%, driven primarily by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict, which caused energy costs to jump 10.9%. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) was 2.6% year-over-year. The result was the highest annual inflation reading since May 2024. Sources: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-report-march-2026.html; https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-march-2026. Reasoning: The falsification criteria states the prediction is false if BLS releases March 2026 headline CPI at or above 3.2%. The actual print was 3.3% year-over-year, confirmed by multiple sources citing the April 10, 2026 BLS release. The energy shock from the Iran conflict — not anticipated in the prediction's reasoning about tariff lag and base effects — drove the upside surprise. The prediction is clearly falsified.