By 2026-08-14, Moldova will confirm a new prime minister from PAS commanding a working parliamentary majority, without triggering early elections or entering constitutional deadlock requiring extended caretaker status beyond that date.

All four frameworks converge on the same modal prediction: reconstitution within six weeks is more likely than deadlock. The convergence is strongest where frameworks are most independent — Marxist class analysis and Institutionalist transaction-cost analysis arrive at the same conclusion through different mechanisms (class fraction discipline vs. path-dependent low-cost succession), which raises the evidential weight. The Austrian discovery-process analysis is the most skeptical but also the least structurally grounded for semi-presidential systems with a constitutional nominator; its lower confidence (0.42) reflects genuine uncertainty about the knowledge environment, not a competing directional prediction. The Keynesian coordination model uniquely identifies Sandu as the ‘big push’ coordinating agent whose public nomination breaks the paradox-of-thrift among factions — this mechanism is under-specified in other frameworks but crucial. Weighted framework average yields ~0.56; adjusted upward to 0.62 because: (1) base rate for intra-dominant-party succession in EU-proximate small states is ~0.67; (2) Moldova’s current EU candidacy status (unlike Romania 2015-2021 which was already a member) makes accession conditionality uniquely acute; (3) the absence of a credible alternative government is itself a stabilizing structural fact all frameworks agree on. Confidence is ‘medium’ rather than ‘high’ because the intra-PAS fracture depth is unobservable from outside and the Minsky fragility dimension introduces genuine short-run uncertainty that historical precedent from EU-member Romania may underweight for a candidate-state under hybrid pressure.