Lebanon's post-ceasefire government will formally collapse between March 2026 and June 2, 2026 — manifesting as either a declared parliamentary majority loss, a formal coalition withdrawal by one or more major blocs, or cabinet dissolution initiated through ministerial resignations or parliamentary vote.

The original prediction conflates institutional inertia with stability. Lebanon’s governments survive despite crisis, not because of institutional strength — the bar for ‘formally intact’ is low (no explicit withdrawal/dissolution), but the conditions that trigger withdrawal (Israeli pressure, sectarian blame, economic collapse) are explicitly stated in the original claim itself. The prediction assumes factions will absorb these shocks without fracturing. Historical base rate suggests otherwise: Lebanese governments collapse under cumulative pressure every 3-5 years. The 2-month timeline is short but sufficient for one of three mechanisms: (1) Sunni defection due to Hezbollah strategic shifts, (2) Christian opposition forcing dissolution vote, or (3) key ministerial resignation triggering chain reaction. The stated ‘deepening fissures’ are early warning indicators — when sectarian tensions deepen under airstrikes, formal fracture typically follows. Confidence in original (0.76) is driven by prediction of inertia, but inertia fails precisely when factions believe the government cannot deliver security or legitimacy.