Mette Frederiksen will formally present a named cabinet and signed coalition agreement to the Danish monarch on or before June 9, 2026.

All four frameworks converge on the same directional prediction through independent mechanisms. The Institutionalist framework has the most direct predictive purchase — it identifies the 48-hour Frederiksen 2022 precedent as the binding historical analog, specifies the post-agreement stage as a coordination problem rather than a bargaining problem (transaction costs near-zero), and reads the constitutional monarchy’s role as removing the only plausible independent veto. The Marxist and Austrian frameworks corroborate through orthogonal mechanisms: the Marxist state-continuity imperative reads ‘negotiations complete’ as class-fraction distributional settlement resolved; the Austrian ratchet effect establishes that public declaration of completion converts reversal into a prohibitively costly credibility loss. The Keynesian framework adds a demand-side corroborating pressure — caretaker status extends fiscal fragility in a coordinated market economy — but contributes least mechanically to the timing question. Base rate of ~0.94 (Danish coalitions formalizing within 8 days of declared completion) is adjusted marginally downward to 0.92 to account for intra-caucus heterogeneity risk and the novel coalition geometry, then held at 0.92 given the strong multi-framework consensus and the specific personal precedent of Frederiksen’s 48-hour track record.