Brent crude oil will close above $105/barrel for at least 5 consecutive trading days within the 14 calendar days following Iran's strikes on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan (window: July 13–27, 2026).

Three of four frameworks predict YES with confidence clustering at 0.63–0.64 (Marxist, Keynesian, Institutionalist); the Austrian framework is the outlier at 0.50, anchored to the entrepreneurial-correction hypothesis that rerouting and SPR signals compress the premium within 3–4 days. The synthesis resolves this disagreement by noting the Austrian blind spot: it underweights coordinated state-actor behavior (OPEC+, IEA, GCC governments) that is structurally dominant in a hot military conflict over sovereign US territory. The Institutionalist framework provides the most direct answer to the specific threshold question: if the IEA activation lag (10–21 days) structurally exceeds the 5-consecutive-day criterion, then the dampener cannot arrive before the prediction resolves, making institutional path-dependence the binding constraint. The Keynesian animal-spirits and path-dependency mechanisms supply the stickiness mechanism (convention crystallizes above $105; reversion requires proof of resolution, not merely absence of new escalation). The Marxist reproduction-lag asymmetry confirms alternative supply cannot materialize within 14 days. The Austrian concern is real — the streak can be broken by credible diplomatic signals — but the news brief confirms Hormuz remains ‘still contested’ as of resolution date onset, making rapid entrepreneurial correction against an open Hormuz less likely than the Austrian framework assumes. Weighted confidence: 0.64×0.25 + 0.50×0.15 + 0.63×0.30 + 0.64×0.30 = 0.616, rounded to 0.62 after applying a small downward adjustment for the genuine uncertainty around Trump SPR timing and US military response credibility restoration speed.