Neither a formal parliamentary vote of no-confidence in Keir Starmer nor a public announcement of his resignation or initiation of a Labour leadership review will occur by July 10, 2026; the crisis remains in the informal-signaling phase through that date.

Base rate for any UK PM facing visible party crisis triggering formal action (resignation announcement OR formal party challenge OR formal parliamentary no-confidence from own benches) within 14 days of visible legitimacy deterioration is approximately 10-12% historically. The institutionalist framework provides the most mechanistically precise upward adjustment: the specific 20% PLP threshold, whipping-system enforcement, formal/informal signal distinction, and 2016 path-dependence all operate as friction coefficients that suppress the probability of formal action in a compressed window. The Marxist and Austrian frameworks corroborate this prediction from different angles — capital preference for managed succession and the unsolved coordination problem respectively — raising confidence. The Keynesian animal-spirits mechanism is the primary counter-pressure: convention shifts can compress timelines non-linearly, and the ‘downfall’ framing is now publicly established. Weighting institutionalist analysis most heavily (it has the most specific mechanistic traction on the formal/informal distinction that defines falsification), the base rate adjusts upward from 12% to approximately 18% for formal action, yielding 82% confidence that no formal action occurs. The medium confidence-in-confidence reflects genuine uncertainty about whether a threshold-crossing event is already in motion that these frameworks cannot observe.