No formal Labour leadership challenge (nominations reaching 20% PLP threshold), no parliamentary vote of no-confidence in Starmer, and no public resignation announcement by Starmer will occur before July 5, 2026.

All four frameworks converge on the same directional prediction (no formal displacement in this window) via distinct but mutually reinforcing mechanisms. The Institutionalist lens identifies the 20%-nomination threshold as the decisive constraint: it cannot be cleared in 14 days without pre-existing organizing infrastructure that would already be visible. The Austrian lens identifies the knowledge problem: dispersed MP preferences are unobservable without a focal coordination signal, and no such signal exists in the current environment — making profitable political entrepreneurship impossible. The Marxist lens adds that capital-class interests are currently served by managed attrition rather than destabilizing succession race, removing a key constituency for formal challenge. The Keynesian lens is the dissenting voice, assigning the highest tail probability to voluntary resignation (sub-25%) on individual-agency grounds, but its core aggregate-demand mechanism confirms the formal challenge path is blocked by collective inaction. The base rate for any of these three outcomes within a 14-day window absent pre-built infrastructure or a catastrophic triggering event is approximately 8%. The four-framework consensus, the absence of a Howe-equivalent focal defection, the absence of named challenger, and the decisive institutional constraint of the nomination threshold all push confidence toward 0.83. The gap between 0.83 and 1.0 is occupied primarily by the voluntary resignation tail (individual agency is underdetermined by all structural analyses) and the low-probability exogenous shock (leaked scandal, health event, sudden by-election catastrophe).