SoFi Stadium workers will reach a formal contract settlement with venue management before the FIFA World Cup opening game on June 11, 2026, without executing a work-stoppage, picket line, or disruption action affecting tournament operations at the LA venue.

Four frameworks were applied independently and all converged on settlement before June 11. The Keynesian framework contributes the clearest mechanistic argument: the employer’s loss function is discontinuous at disruption, making the settlement cost trivially small relative to the disruption scenario — this is not uncertain at any reasonable estimate of World Cup revenue exposure. The Marxist framework adds demonstration-effect aversion as an independent mechanism pushing capital toward settlement even beyond immediate revenue protection. The Austrian framework reframes the strike vote as price discovery that management must honor given the marginal-revenue-product spike. The Institutionalist framework provides the strongest empirical grounding: the authorize-then-settle script is path-dependent and well-worn in US sports venue history, meaning both parties are playing a recognized game with known equilibria. Base rate from analogous mega-event venue disputes is approximately 0.77. Unanimous framework convergence on the same direction, each via a different causal pathway, warrants upward adjustment to 0.80. The primary residual uncertainty is not whether settlement is the dominant equilibrium but whether the five-day window is sufficient to execute it procedurally, and whether internal union dynamics will allow ratification of a leadership-negotiated deal. Confidence-in-confidence is medium because the internal union politics variable is structurally opaque to all four frameworks.