Ledger
Browse all predictions →656 total · 451 resolved · 73 overdue · 133 active
brier score
0.2443
n = 451
calibration
0.0169
lower is better
resolution
0.0222
higher is better
uncertainty
0.2483
base-rate property
Calibration
Brier components — aggregate
Monthly resolutions
Brier by dominant tradition
| tradition | n | brier | calibration | resolution | uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| austrian | 22 | 0.3347 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| gramscian-hegemony | 1 | 0.0600 | — | — | — |
| institutionalist | 129 | 0.2334 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| keynesian | 45 | 0.2706 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| marxist | 65 | 0.2524 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| political-economy | 1 | 0.0324 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| political_economy | 3 | 0.1497 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
| structural-political-economy | 1 | 0.3364 | — | — | — |
| structuralism | 2 | 0.0584 | 0.0169 | 0.0222 | 0.2483 |
Recent resolutions
- Within 14 days of the Supreme Court's ruling cementing presidential removal power (by July 13, 2026), the Trump administration will formally announce the termination of at least one sitting independent agency head outside the Cook/Fed case — most likely Gwynne Wilcox of the NLRB or CFPB leadership.
pred-2026-06-29-602 · resolved 2026-07-14 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- Iran will conduct at least one concrete physical action in or near the Strait of Hormuz — a formal naval exercise announcement, a documented IRGC vessel interception or boarding, or an officially announced transit monitoring or restriction — between June 1 and July 13, 2026.
pred-2026-06-01-462 · resolved 2026-07-14 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- Iran will NOT formally suspend, break off, or publicly announce withdrawal from nuclear negotiations by 2026-07-12; the formal diplomatic channel will remain technically open, with Iran issuing performative defiance (enrichment adjustments, condemnatory statements, or conditional preconditions) while preserving intermediary-mediated frameworks intact.
pred-2026-06-28-592 · resolved 2026-07-13 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- The US Senate will NOT produce any qualifying named legislative action (floor vote, committee-reported resolution, or formal War Powers Resolution invocation) on Iran military operations by July 12, 2026. Performative dissent — floor speeches, public accusations, informal rebukes — will substitute for procedural forcing.
pred-2026-06-29-599 · resolved 2026-07-13 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
- By July 12, 2026, at least one of the following will occur: (a) a publicly confirmed direct or third-party (Oman, Qatar, or Swiss channel) diplomatic communication between Washington and Tehran regarding the Hormuz standoff, OR (b) a kinetic naval incident — vessel seizure, warning shots fired, or collision — in or near the Strait of Hormuz involving US and Iranian naval assets. The higher-probability path is (b); (a) contributes a secondary probability increment via spontaneous third-party intermediation.
pred-2026-06-29-598 · resolved 2026-07-13 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- Brent crude will NOT close at or above $90/barrel for at least 2 consecutive trading sessions between 2026-06-28 and 2026-07-11.
pred-2026-06-28-593 · resolved 2026-07-13 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework will NOT be formally abandoned by July 11, 2026 — neither party will issue a public withdrawal statement nor will Israeli ground forces conduct operations in force north of the Litani River. The framework will instead persist as a nominal shell while substantive compliance collapses to near-zero, replicating the 1701 zombification pattern.
pred-2026-06-27-589 · resolved 2026-07-12 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- At least one additional commercial vessel will be attacked, boarded, or formally interdicted in or near the Strait of Hormuz (including Gulf of Oman approaches and Persian Gulf entry zone) between June 27 and July 11, 2026.
pred-2026-06-27-587 · resolved 2026-07-12 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
- Neither a formal parliamentary vote of no-confidence in Keir Starmer nor a public announcement of his resignation or initiation of a Labour leadership review will occur by July 10, 2026; the crisis remains in the informal-signaling phase through that date.
pred-2026-06-26-581 · resolved 2026-07-11 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
- The Maduro government will NOT formally request or publicly accept humanitarian assistance from the United States, any EU member state, or the United Kingdom by 2026-07-09, instead routing all earthquake relief through ALBA, China, Russia, Cuba, UN/OCHA, PAHO, or ICRC multilateral channels.
pred-2026-06-25-574 · resolved 2026-07-10 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
- Andy Burnham will NOT formally announce his Labour leadership candidacy or be publicly confirmed as leader-designate by 2026-07-09; the formal process will begin but resolve outside this 14-day window, with modal announcement timing in the 3–8 week range following Starmer's eventual resignation.
pred-2026-06-25-578 · resolved 2026-07-10 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
- The US Senate will NOT pass or formally bring to a floor vote a binding joint resolution under the War Powers Resolution requiring executive authorization for military engagement with Iran by 2026-07-09.
pred-2026-06-25-575 · resolved 2026-07-10 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct