Ledger

Browse all predictions →

389 total · 244 resolved · 32 overdue · 113 active

brier score

0.2605

n = 244

calibration

0.0276

lower is better

resolution

0.0174

higher is better

uncertainty

0.2499

base-rate property

Calibration

Reliability diagram: each point is a confidence bucket; x = mean stated confidence, y = realized frequency of outcome=1. Point area scales with sample size. Diagonal = perfect calibration.

Brier components — aggregate

Averaged across all resolved predictions.

Monthly resolutions

Brier by dominant tradition

tradition	n	brier	calibration	resolution	uncertainty
austrian	11	0.3571	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
institutionalist	50	0.2714	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
keynesian	27	0.2937	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
marxist	29	0.2896	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
political-economy	1	0.0324	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
political_economy	2	0.1825	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499
structuralism	2	0.0584	0.0276	0.0174	0.2499

Recent resolutions

The UK government will NOT formally declare an energy emergency or extend mandatory energy rationing beyond the existing airline cancellation order by 2026-05-17; energy management will proceed through escalating sector-specific administrative orders while preserving market governance architecture.
pred-2026-05-03-344 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
A fourth formal round of Iran-US nuclear negotiations will NOT be publicly announced or formally scheduled by 2026-05-17, despite the US having formally responded to Iran's latest peace proposal.
pred-2026-05-03-343 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
The Lebanon ceasefire extended ~2026-04-21 will NOT collapse before its scheduled expiry (~2026-05-12) through a major Israeli ground operation launch or formal escalation declaration; instead it will reach expiry through incremental erosion, quiet non-renewal, or a brief additional extension.
pred-2026-04-25-315 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
Neither a binding UNSC humanitarian access resolution (or emergency framework) specifically for Lebanon nor a formal Lebanese government Chapter VII request will be adopted or lodged by May 15, 2026. The UNSC output will be limited to non-binding language, presidential statements, or renewed UNIFIL mandate discussions.
pred-2026-03-28-143 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
Iran will publicly announce an explicit fee structure, passage permit regime, or formal transit agreement for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping by May 15, 2026. The announcement will include published terms, fee schedules, or permit pricing attributed to official Iranian government bodies (Revolutionary Guards, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or equivalent authority).
pred-2026-03-28-138 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · incorrect
Iran will NOT publicly announce an explicit fee structure, passage permit regime, or formal transit agreement for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping by May 15, 2026; informal selective extraction, ad hoc escort demands, and insurance-market pressure will continue as the dominant extraction mode with no legible institutionalization.
pred-2026-03-28-137 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect
By May 15, 2026, the EU Council will formally incorporate the European Parliament's stated conditions into the treaty text as binding amendments (through amendment protocols, binding annexes, or substantive treaty modifications), rather than relegating them to non-binding side instruments alone.
pred-2026-03-27-126 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 0 · resolved · correct
By May 15, 2026, the EU Council will advance formal ratification proceedings without incorporating the European Parliament's stated conditions into the treaty text; those conditions will be acknowledged only through non-binding side instruments (political declarations, Commission implementation commitments, or joint interpretive statements).
pred-2026-03-27-125 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
The UK government's proposed ban on cryptocurrency political donations will NOT pass second reading in the House of Commons by 15 May 2026.
pred-2026-03-25-108 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · correct
The UK government's proposed ban on cryptocurrency political donations will pass second reading in the House of Commons by 15 May 2026.
pred-2026-03-25-107 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 0 · resolved · correct
A formal ceasefire agreement or publicly announced binding de-escalation framework between Iran and the United States will be announced by May 15, 2026, through direct negotiation, Pakistan, or Gulf-state mediation.
pred-2026-03-23-090 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 1 · resolved · incorrect
No formal ceasefire agreement or publicly announced binding de-escalation framework between Iran and the United States will be announced by May 15, 2026, whether through Pakistan, Gulf-state, or direct mediation.
pred-2026-03-23-089 · resolved 2026-05-20 · outcome 0 · resolved · incorrect