pred-2026-04-08-184
US March 2026 headline CPI (year-over-year) will print BELOW 3.2% when released approximately April 10, 2026
- created
- 2026-04-08
- resolves
- 2026-04-11
- resolved
- 2026-04-11
- outcome
- 0
- brier
- 0.1521
- base rate
- 0.42
- meta-confidence
- medium
Evidence for (8)
- Tariff pass-through to consumer prices lags policy implementation by 6-12 months; Trump tariffs announced March 2025 would not fully materialize in March 2026 pricing
- Energy price volatility remains contained; WTI crude has not experienced sustained spikes sufficient to drive significant YoY headline increases
- Shelter cost moderation accelerating through early 2026 as rent growth continues normalizing from 2021-2023 peaks
- Food price disinflation persisting; global commodity prices stable and supply chains fully normalized reducing agricultural input costs
- Base effect favorable: March 2025 CPI likely printed elevated (post-gasoline spike period), creating easy YoY comparison
- Fed's sustained restrictive rate environment suppressing aggregate demand and pricing power across goods categories
- Consumer spending growth slowing in Q1 2026, reducing demand-pull inflation pressures
- Import prices from tariff-compliant suppliers and reshoring not yet fully reflected in March CPI baskets
Evidence against (6)
- Tariff implementation began accelerating in early 2026, with potential for direct cost pass-through to consumer goods appearing in March data
- Labor market remains relatively tight, supporting wage growth and service price inflation
- Recent energy price volatility from geopolitical events could push crude oil and gasoline YoY metrics higher
- Shelter costs, while moderating, remain significantly elevated relative to 2020 baseline
- March 2025 baseline may not be as elevated as assumed, making YoY comparison less favorable
- Supply-side constraints in specific sectors (autos, electronics) could support pricing power
Reasoning chain
The original prediction of 3.2%+ relies on tariff pass-through showing up sharply in March 2026 CPI, sustained elevated energy costs, and tight labor markets offsetting disinflation in goods. However, the timing of tariff implementation matters critically: tariffs announced or implemented in March 2025 take 6-12 months to translate into retail price increases. March 2026 CPI baskets reflect goods pricing from January-March 2026 manufacturing and import decisions, which predate the most aggressive tariff escalation. Energy remains volatile but not in a structural uptrend. The more likely scenario is that headline CPI benefits from base effects (March 2025 was post-gasoline spike period) and continued shelter moderation, printing in the 2.8-3.1% range. Tariff pass-through will accelerate into Q2-Q3 2026 releases, not March.
Falsification criteria
The prediction is false if BLS reports March 2026 headline CPI YoY reading of 3.2% or higher. The prediction is true if the reading is below 3.2%.
Brier breakdown
Post-mortem
Auto-resolved (falsified, confidence=0.97). Evidence: The BLS released the March 2026 CPI report on April 10, 2026. Headline CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices tied to the US-Iran conflict. This is above the 3.2% threshold specified in the falsification criteria. Sources: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-report-march-2026.html; https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-march-2026. Reasoning: The falsification criteria states the prediction is false if BLS reports March 2026 headline CPI YoY of 3.2% or higher. The official BLS release and multiple major outlets (CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business) confirm the March 2026 headline CPI YoY printed at 3.3%, which is above the 3.2% threshold. The energy surge (gasoline +21.2%) driven by the US-Iran conflict was the primary driver. The prediction is therefore falsified with high confidence.