crisis-fwd-pred-2026-04-07-169-e2e4ee

- **Prior framework would predict**: As Hormuz blockade and tariff regime persist through Q2-Q3 2026, monthly CPI readings will show *proportional* acceleration — each month reflecting roughly the same structural pressure, producing a steady or slightly increasing inflation trajectory (e.g., 3.3% → 3.5% → 3.6% → 3.7% year-over-year in roughly even increments) as both vetoes continue to operate on the same allocation channels. - **Revised framework predicts**: CPI will follow a *convex delayed-acceleration curve* rather than a linear one. The first 2-3 months of a persistent structural shock show understated readings as absorption buffers (pre-shock inventory, margin capacity, substitution availability) dampen pass-through. Months 4-6 show *disproportionate* acceleration as those buffers deplete simultaneously — inventory runs out, margin compression reaches competitive limits, substitution sources themselves face price pressure. The April-May 2026 readings (released May-June) will remain moderate (3.2-3.5% YoY) despite intensifying Hormuz and tariff pressure, followed by a sharper jump in June-July readings (3.6%+ YoY) as the dampening layer exhausts. - **Distinguishing observation**: Compare month-over-month CPI acceleration in April-May 2026 versus June-August 2026 (BLS releases through September). If the prior framework is right, the month-to-month increments should be roughly constant. If the revised framework is right, there should be a visible inflection — flatter early readings giving way to steeper later readings — even though the underlying structural forces (tariff regime, Hormuz blockade) remain stable throughout. Specifically: if the June or July 2026 MoM CPI print exceeds the April and May MoM prints by more than 0.15 percentage points while no new structural shock is introduced, the convex-acceleration pattern is confirmed. Observable by September 2026. - **Confidence**: 0.45 that the convex pattern materializes (visible inflection between the April

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2026-05-20