ZANU-PF will advance Zimbabwe's constitutional amendment bill to replace direct presidential elections with parliamentary selection past its first substantive parliamentary reading or into committee referral by July 3, 2026.

Base rate derived from five historical precedents of dominant-party constitutional consolidation with supermajority control: in all five cases, first-stage parliamentary advancement occurred within 14 days of bill introduction. This yields a base rate of ~0.85. Four frameworks converge on the same directional prediction (YES) with mean framework confidence of 0.74. The primary downward adjustment from the base rate is the shared blind spot across all four frameworks: intra-ZANU-PF factional dynamics, which none of the frameworks can adequately model and which represents the highest-probability pathway to failure. Secondary adjustment: the 14-day window is genuinely tight given legislative calendar lumpiness. The institutionalist framework receives highest weight (0.35) because it directly models procedural path dependence and transaction cost asymmetry — the mechanisms most proximate to the specific question. Keynesian receives 0.25 for its unique purchase on why urgency is acute under fundamental uncertainty and patronage stress. Austrian receives 0.22 for the concentrated-benefit/dispersed-cost analysis that explains speed. Marxist receives 0.18 — its international capital discipline circuit is the most empirically significant moderating force but operates on a slower timescale than 14 days. Final confidence: 0.85 base rate, adjusted down to 0.78 for intra-elite uncertainty, parliamentary scheduling lumpiness, and legal-challenge risk.