US-Iran nuclear and sanctions negotiations will produce a publicly acknowledged written framework or agreement-in-principle document by May 31, 2026. A jointly circulated text, formal signed memo, or jointly-released statement establishing mutual negotiating positions and structural terms will be publicly released.

The original prediction assumes negotiations will plateau at indefinite back-channel stage with only verbal progress claims. This reasoning underweights: (1) Trump administration’s demonstrated transactional approach and institutional need for foreign policy wins, (2) Iran’s rational economic calculus—sanctions are acutely damaging and written framework offering relief is high-value deliverable, (3) the reasonable 13+ month timeline for agreement-in-principle (significantly lower bar than final treaty or comprehensive agreement), and (4) mutual incentive structures for both governments to show constituents tangible results. The original correctly identifies substantial real obstacles: Iranian hardliner institutional veto, US domestic polarization, technical complexity of verification and enforcement, and historical pattern of Iranian preference for ambiguity over commitment. However, these obstacles may not be insurmountable if political will materializes in next 6-8 weeks and both sides commit resources to framework formalization. The original’s 79% confidence reasonably weights these obstacles, but the residual 21% may underestimate the probability that economic pressure on Iran, Trump’s deal-seeking orientation, and reasonable timeline combine to push both sides toward written agreement-in-principle despite institutional resistance.