Skip to content

pred-2026-03-18-026

The March 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections will show the median 2026 rate-cut projection at 3 or more cuts, maintaining or upward-revising from December's 3-cut baseline.

resolved · correct tier 1 economic political geopolitical
confidence 0.280
created
2026-03-18
resolves
2026-03-20
resolved
2026-03-20
outcome
0
brier
0.0784
base rate
0.35
meta-confidence
medium
Evidence for (6)
  • Disinflationary trend from late 2025 into March 2026 would necessitate maintenance or increase in projected cuts; Fed cannot logically cut fewer if inflation cools faster than December forecast
  • Labor market softening signals (jobless claims rising, employment growth moderating) justify maintaining or increasing cut projections relative to December baseline
  • Base-rate analysis: FOMC revisions typically move ±1 cut; dramatic downward revision to 2 or fewer cuts is less common (~35% historical frequency for 3-month windows)
  • December's 3-cut median was established consensus across regional Fed communications; no major economic reversal of trend has occurred in Q1 2026
  • Real yields and financial market pricing already reflect expectation of multiple cuts; FOMC typically confirms market consensus rather than shocking downward
  • If energy disruptions occur but moderate inflation persists, the Fed faces a growth-vs-inflation trade-off that tilts toward MORE cuts to support employment mandate, not fewer
Evidence against (6)
  • Middle East tensions could trigger sustained energy supply shocks that drive inflation stickier than December models projected, justifying hawkish recalibration
  • Strong employment data through Q4 2025 and early Q1 2026 could constrain Fed's appetite for aggressive cutting
  • Fed communications have emphasized caution about cutting into strength; March projection could reflect more disciplined/conservative stance
  • Seasonal pattern: March FOMC meetings historically show slight hawkish bias relative to December projections
  • The original prediction's high confidence (0.82) reflects substantive modeling of inflation persistence and Hormuz-specific energy supply risks
  • Unexpected wage growth or services inflation could trigger downward revision of cuts as Fed prioritizes price stability

Reasoning chain

The original prediction requires a notable hawkish shift from 3 to 2-or-fewer cuts—a scenario justified only if inflation becomes STICKIER than December’s forecast. Logical problem: if inflation moderates faster than expected, the Fed is obligated to project more cuts, not fewer. If growth slows, the Fed increases cuts to support employment. The original’s confidence depends on inflation surprising upward and Hormuz disruptions proving more destabilizing than expected. However, base-rate analysis shows major FOMC revisions (>1 cut change) occur in ~30-35% of 3-month windows. The most probable outcome: Fed maintains December’s 3-cut guidance, reflecting moderate disinflationary progress without crisis. The original conflates ‘plausible energy disruption’ with ‘certainty of sticky inflation,’ overstating confidence. Additionally, if any Hormuz language emerges, Powell would likely frame it as supporting rate cuts to sustain growth through geopolitical uncertainty, not as constraint on cutting.

Falsification criteria

If the March 2026 FOMC dot-plot median for 2026 rate cuts is 2 or fewer, the claim is FALSE. If it is 3 or more cuts, the claim is TRUE. Resolution depends solely on the published dot-plot median, which is objective and unambiguous.

Brier breakdown

Calibration − resolution + uncertainty = Brier score. Lower calibration is better; higher resolution is better.

Post-mortem

Auto-resolved (falsified, confidence=0.99). Evidence: The March 18, 2026 FOMC dot plot showed a median projection of only 1 rate cut in 2026, not 3 or more. Multiple sources confirm: CNBC reported 'Fed still expects to cut rates once this year,' Yahoo Finance reported 'Federal Reserve forecasts 1 rate cut in 2026,' and BondBlox reported 'Median Dots Project Only 1 Cut in 2026.' The distribution shifted even more hawkishly relative to December 2025, with 14 members now seeing 1 or 0 cuts vs. only 7 in December. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/dot-plot-fed-still-expects-to-cut-rates-once-this-year-despite-spiking-oil-prices-.html; https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-federal-reserve-holds-rates-steady-forecasts-1-rate-cut-in-2026-180216872.html; https://bondblox.com/news/fed-cuts-by-25bp-median-dots-project-only-1-cut-in-2026. Reasoning: The falsification criteria states: 'If the March 2026 FOMC dot-plot median for 2026 rate cuts is 2 or fewer, the claim is FALSE.' The March 18, 2026 SEP showed a median of 1 rate cut for 2026, which is clearly 2 or fewer. Furthermore, the distribution shifted hawkishly relative to December 2025 — the opposite of the predicted 'maintaining or upward-revising' direction. The prediction required 3+ cuts; the actual median was 1 cut.