pred-2026-07-16-008

Between 2026-07-16 and 2027-07-31, for the first US consumer-brand boycott that (a) is identity-coded (a documented counter-campaign in the opposite direction reported by >=2 national outlets within 30 days of onset) and (b) is polled nationally with a probability-based sample — the gap in side-taking between the two major partisan identification groups, MEASURED AMONG RESPONDENTS WHO FAIL A FACTUAL SCREEN ABOUT THE TRIGGERING EVENT, will be at least 25 percentage points. Fallback measure if no knowledge-screened poll exists: the same >=25pp partisan gap measured in polling fielded entirely within the first 7 days of onset, before the merits have been widely reported.

created

2026-07-16