Espriella defeats the left-labor candidate in the Colombian presidential runoff (est. June 8–15, 2026) by a margin of 4–10 percentage points, extending the Latin American right-populist electoral wave.

Four frameworks independently produce the same directional prediction through distinct mechanisms. Marxist: ruling-class enforcement infrastructure (paramilitary floor, media oligarchy) and superstructural inversion of Petro governance failures structurally constrain left vote in rural departments and petty-bourgeois segments. Austrian: Petro-era malinvestment is legible through individual balance sheets to price-signal-literate middle-class voters — no coordinating narrative required; the peso and inflation communicate it directly. Keynesian: investor animal spirits create a self-fulfilling confidence signal that operates faster than the consumption-multiplier transmission of left-labor programs within a 10–14 day runoff window; thermostatic attribution punishes the left incumbent regardless of structural causation. Institutionalist: broker-network convergence under binary choice and extractive-institution lock-in (state-contracting elites face high switching costs) favor right coalition at reduced coordination cost. The convergence of all four frameworks on the same direction, against an average per-framework confidence of 0.59, is the primary signal amplifier. Base rate of 0.62 from the Colombia 2010 structural precedent is adjusted upward by approximately 0.01 on framework consensus strength. Remaining uncertainty concentrates in left mobilization potential — specifically whether Petro direct campaigning, FARC-zone bloc votes, and social-media coordination can replicate 2022 arithmetic without 2022’s enabling conditions (youth first-time mobilization wave, right fragmentation across multiple candidates, Petro’s unique biographical resonance).