By 2026-07-02, NO major maritime insurance underwriter (Lloyd's syndicates, P&I clubs, or equivalent) will formally lower Hormuz war-risk premiums to pre-April 2026 levels in response to the Trump-Pezeshkian MoU; premiums will remain elevated by at least 30% above pre-April 2026 baseline across all major London market underwriters.

Four frameworks applying distinct mechanisms all converge on NO. Historical base rate from two direct structural analogues (1988 Iran-Iraq ceasefire, 2019 Hormuz attacks) is approximately 4% — no major underwriter has formally returned Hormuz war-risk premiums to pre-crisis levels within 14 days of a bilateral political agreement in recorded history. Framework evidence uniformly reinforces the base rate from different angles: (1) The Austrian asymmetric-loss argument demonstrates rational underwriters cannot benefit from first-mover repricing while bearing full catastrophic exposure if wrong — conservative pricing is structurally embedded, not a behavioral anomaly; (2) The Institutionalist procedural argument shows JWC Listed Areas review cycles cannot complete within 14 days regardless of political willingness — formal premium reduction is institutionally impossible within this window; (3) The Keynesian coordination-failure argument shows that even if private syndicate beliefs shift, public pricing requires a threshold of coordinated movers that cannot form in 14 days given institutional cadence mismatch; (4) The Marxist proxy-autonomy argument shows the Iranian state cannot deliver the safety guarantee implicit in the MoU, which underwriters model explicitly. The primary uncertainty is whether state-level political pressure (US Treasury or HM Government) could force administrative premium adjustment bypassing market mechanisms — a historically rare but nonzero path that caps confidence at 0.84 rather than higher. The confidence-in-confidence assessment is HIGH because all four frameworks provide independent mechanistic explanations for the same outcome with no directional disagreement, and historical precedents are directly analogous.