Within 14 days of Khamenei's death (by 2026-07-20), Iran's Assembly of Experts will formally convene a plenary session but will NOT issue a public signal that reveals the succession trajectory — no named candidates will appear in official record, no directional procedural vote will be disclosed, and any official communiqué will confirm process legitimacy without signaling factional direction. Factional consolidation will proceed covertly, with the body remaining substantively silent on trajectory even while procedurally active.

Four frameworks were applied; all four independently predict formal plenary convening (legitimacy imperative, constitutional obligation, path dependence, institutional transaction cost). The disagreement is solely on whether a trajectory signal accompanies the convening. Three frameworks (Marxist, Austrian, Keynesian) predict NO trajectory signal within 14 days through distinct mechanisms: superstructure-base decoupling (Marxist), option-value preservation under knowledge dispersion (Austrian), and liquidity preference / paradox of thrift under Knightian uncertainty (Keynesian). The Institutionalist framework partially diverges — it predicts YES on convening + communiqué but concedes named candidates and directional votes are unlikely. The critical interpretive question is whether a procedural communiqué meets the ‘trajectory signal’ threshold. Reading the question strictly — ‘trajectory’ implies directional content, not mere process acknowledgment — the three-framework majority prediction governs. Base rate from comparable authoritarian-theocratic successions is ~30% for substantive public trajectory signal within 14 days. The framework convergence and the Mojtaba absence signal (covert consolidation not yet complete) adjust confidence upward from base rate to 0.67 for the NO-trajectory-signal outcome, meaning ~0.33 for YES. Formally, the prediction is framed as the NO outcome at 0.67 confidence.