The UK government will issue a communiqué, Treasury statement of intent, or signed agreement formally associating itself with co-financing the EU's €90bn Ukraine loan package by 2026-06-01. The commitment will most likely take the form of a communiqué or bilateral statement of intent rather than a fully integrated co-financing agreement — all four frameworks agree on outcome but converge on the softer instrument as the modal form.

All four frameworks predict some qualifying formal commitment with confidence range 0.52–0.67; they converge on communiqué or statement of intent as modal form, diverging only on probability of fully signed co-financing agreement by June 1. Resolution criteria are inclusive enough to capture the communiqué form, raising effective probability above the more conservative individual framework estimates. Weighted average of framework confidence (0.67×0.30 + 0.63×0.25 + 0.52×0.20 + 0.62×0.25 = 0.618) adjusted upward to 0.65 because: (1) resolution criteria explicitly include communiqués, the lowest-transaction-cost form all frameworks identify as likely; (2) active talks signal past the Austrian discovery phase — implementation, not exploration; (3) multiple historical precedents confirm UK makes soft bilateral commitments in structurally identical situations within weeks. The Keynesian Minsky discount and institutionalist path-dependence arguments apply more strongly to a signed co-financing agreement than to a communiqué, leaving the broader prediction relatively robust. Key residual uncertainty: whether domestic veto players (Reform UK framing, gilt market sensitivity) force the government to keep any commitment below the threshold of formal as defined in the resolution criteria — i.e., whether the commitment exists but is deliberately held below the communiqué threshold for domestic reasons.