The US Navy will successfully coordinate the transit of at least 3 additional commercially-operated vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under naval escort between 2026-05-04 and 2026-05-14, building on the reported 2-vessel precedent and Trump's public commitment to 'guide' stranded ships.

All four frameworks converge on YES via independent mechanisms, which is the primary signal. The Marxist analysis identifies structural necessity (imperial guarantor function, petrodollar circuit maintenance) as near-determinative: the US state’s class obligations create action pressure exceeding tactical risk aversion. The Keynesian analysis identifies the convention-formation mechanism already triggered by the 2-vessel precedent — operators shift from Knightian uncertainty to calculable risk, unlocking pent-up demand among stranded vessels — against an expectations-anchoring backdrop from Trump’s public commitment. The Institutionalist analysis frames the credibility-institution trap as producing organizational pressure equivalent to structural compulsion, while identifying transaction-cost barriers as the key operational constraint; 3 vessels is nonetheless low enough to survive those barriers. The Austrian analysis, though critical of the escort architecture’s epistemic limits, concedes the raw political commitment makes 3 transits achievable, while cautioning that counted transits may be militarily-arranged rather than commercially-normalized. Base rate from Earnest Will is ~0.80 for escort viability at this threshold. Downward adjustments: (1) compressed 10-day window vs. months of Earnest Will ramp-up reduces institutional coordination probability; (2) Keynesian bimodal scenario structure — a single Iranian incident collapses the convention and demand simultaneously, a non-trivial risk over 10 days. Net confidence: 0.70. Strong directional convergence, meaningful residual uncertainty from Iran’s exogenous tactical choices.