Armed groups will NOT execute a sustained incursion into Bamako's urban core (inside the Boulevard ring road) within 8 weeks of the April 25, 2026 coordinated attacks near Bamako airport — perimeter and peri-urban pressure will continue and likely escalate, but the Boulevard threshold will not be crossed with forces operating inside the ring continuously for 48 hours or more.

Starting from a 10% base rate (historical frequency of insurgencies executing sustained urban-core incursions within 8 weeks of major perimeter attacks, absent prior state structural collapse), the cross-framework consensus provides a strong Bayesian update toward no incursion. The institutionalist mechanism — collective action failure among fragmented factions, prohibitive coordination costs for multi-directional Boulevard penetration, and the tacit demarcation arrangement that sustains armed groups’ own peripheral governance legitimacy — provides the most structurally stable barrier. The Marxist Wagner-junta class alliance adds a specific defensive concentration dynamic at precisely the point of potential breach. The Austrian knowledge-inversion mechanism explains why the Boulevard perimeter is the specific threshold where insurgent operational advantages reverse. The Keynesian framework is the sole dissenting signal: elevated animal spirits and Minsky overextension risk constitute the primary falsification mechanism. But Minsky overextension requires sustained organizational coherence that the institutionalist analysis shows is constitutively unavailable within the 8-week window. Unweighted average of framework no-incursion confidences is 0.64; cross-framework consensus on the same direction — particularly when the frameworks’ causal logics are independent — justifies upward adjustment to 0.83. Confidence-in-confidence is medium rather than high because the Keynesian dissent is non-trivial, the 8-week window is long enough for external supply shocks to alter the calculus, and ground-truth verification of urban perimeter penetration in this conflict environment has significant reporting lag.