Brent crude oil will close above $100/barrel on at least 4 of the 5 trading days from April 14–18, 2026, given the announced US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Step 1 — Anchor check: Brent is at $103 at time of prediction. The question asks whether prices remain above $100 for 4/5 trading days. The buffer is only $3, meaning price must fall more than 3% AND hold below $100 on at least 2 days to falsify. Step 2 — Supply-side lag: All four frameworks independently confirm that no supply-side corrective mechanism operates within a 5-day window. Rerouting, SPR deployment, and OPEC+ adjustments all require weeks. This is the single strongest point of agreement. Step 3 — Process-rent lock-in (Marxist): Both parties have structural incentives to maintain the impasse — US capital extracts from volatility, Iranian state extracts legitimacy. Resolution is structurally costly for both. This elevates confidence beyond what pure market mechanics would suggest. Step 4 — Insurance market enforcement (Institutionalist): Lloyd’s war-risk cascades enforce the blockade irrespective of naval action. This mechanism operates faster than diplomatic channels and cannot be defused without a credible ceasefire. Elevates confidence. Step 5 — Precautionary hoarding (Keynesian): Importing nations scramble to secure supply, creating demand amplification on top of supply shock. Reinforces prices above equilibrium within the window. Step 6 — Regime uncertainty premium (Austrian): Even partial or symbolic enforcement creates an unknowable enforcement posture, generating an option-value premium that rational traders cannot undercut. The UK defection amplifies rather than resolves this uncertainty. Step 7 — Downside risks: All frameworks flag the same two credible downside scenarios: (a) coordinated IEA release, and (b) sudden US political reversal. Neither is assigned high probability within the April 14–18 window based on current information — IEA has not signaled action, and Trump’s domestic political incentives favor escalation. Step 8 — Base rate calibration: In prior Hormuz-threat or physical supply disruption episodes with comparable severity (1973, 1990, 2012), prices sustained at or above the shock level for the first two weeks in all cases. The 2019 Abqaiq attack reversed in two weeks but was a one-time physical event, not an ongoing blockade — the sustained institutional uncertainty here is more analogous to the 1973 and 2012 episodes. Base rate: 82%. Framework analyses collectively add 1% above base rate for the additional mechanism redundancy across all four traditions.