By June 4, 2026, at least 3 US states (most likely from NY, CA, MA, IL, CO, or WA) will publicly announce or formally launch corporate securities enforcement actions or new regulatory frameworks explicitly framed in official communications — press releases, legislative testimony, or formal AG statements — as filling the enforcement vacuum created by the SEC chair's withdrawal from corporate policing.

All four frameworks agree NY and CA act — near-certain. The contested variable is whether a third state reaches the explicit-framing threshold and whether the framing criterion is satisfied declaratorily rather than only behaviorally. The Keynesian mechanism is decisive on the framing question: the SEC chair’s own public statement naming state enforcement as the intended substitute makes the explicit framing politically costless — AG press offices can adopt the exact language without constructing a novel narrative. The institutionalist path-dependence analysis confirms that existing Martin Act and blue-sky law infrastructure means no new legislative creation is required, only political escalation of existing enforcement posture. The Marxist substitution cascade predicts that NY/CA announcement creates signaling pressure that lowers activation threshold for states 3–5 within weeks. The Austrian skepticism — that states will act without explicit vacuum framing — is the primary risk to YES resolution, but the Keynesian counter (SEC chair’s own statement makes the framing available and politically costless) substantially answers it. Base rate from post-2008 Schneiderman and 2017 EPA coalition precedents: ~60%. Upward adjustment for the SEC chair’s explicit state-shift statement, existing institutional capacity, and electoral incentive density in blue-state AG offices in 2026 yields ~67%.