pred-2026-04-09-187
March 2026 US CPI (all items, year-over-year) prints at or above 3.0% when released approximately April 10–11, 2026.
- created
- 2026-04-09
- resolves
- 2026-04-11
- resolved
- 2026-04-11
- outcome
- 1
- brier
- 0.1089
- base rate
- 0.55
- meta-confidence
- medium
Tradition weights
- marxist0.28
- institutionalist0.26
- keynesian0.24
- austrian0.22
Evidence for (8)
- All four frameworks independently converge on YES — unusually strong cross-paradigm consensus for a quantitative threshold prediction
- March 2026 falls squarely in the institutional pass-through window (3–9 months) for Q3–Q4 2025 tariff escalations
- Pre-tariff inventory buffers built in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 largely exhausted by March, removing the primary price-suppression mechanism
- Oligopolistic concentration in retail, electronics, and autos permits near-complete pass-through with additional margin capture — no competitive defection option when tariffs are industry-wide
- Shelter CPI remains structurally elevated via BLS new-tenant lease-renewal lag methodology, independent of tariffs — provides a hard floor
- Collective pricing norm has shifted: when all competitors face identical cost increases simultaneously, the coordination barrier to pass-through collapses
- Timing asymmetry favors cost-push side: price increases are front-loaded in the data; demand destruction from real income compression operates on a 2–4 quarter lag
- Services inflation carries sticky wage component from prior monetary expansion that does not reverse quickly
Evidence against (7)
- Hormuz reopening introduces genuine energy deflationary counterpressure — oil and petrochemical input costs falling may drag headline CPI below goods inflation
- USD strength as safe-haven currency partially offsets tariff-imposed import price increases, muting the CPI pass-through
- Third-country tariff routing (Chinese goods via Vietnam, Mexico) creates unmeasured price-suppression channel not captured in official import price indices
- Hyper-competitive retail sectors (discount grocery, fast fashion) may absorb tariff costs in margin compression rather than price increases, slowing aggregate pass-through
- Animal spirits suppression and fundamental uncertainty over tariff permanence may have begun inducing precautionary saving, providing earlier-than-expected demand-side disinflationary offset
- 2018–2019 Section 301 precedent: pass-through was only 20–40% of tariff increment, suggesting aggregate CPI effect could be smaller than structural models predict
- If Fed has credibly signaled higher-for-longer, anchored expectations suppress second-round wage-price dynamics and keep realized inflation below structural prediction
Reasoning chain
Base rate for CPI ≥3.0% given current trajectory and tariff context is approximately 0.55 — uncertain without knowing current CPI level precisely, but above coin-flip given persistent shelter and services inflation. Four frameworks independently predict YES with individual confidences ranging 0.62–0.67. Cross-paradigm convergence on the same directional outcome is a strong signal-amplifier, as each framework uses distinct causal pathways to reach the same conclusion. Weighted average framework confidence is 0.64. Convergence premium of ~0.03 applied given independent derivations. The primary uncertainty is the magnitude of energy deflation from Hormuz reopening and third-country routing suppression — both genuine but likely insufficient at this time horizon to overcome the combined goods+shelter+services cost-push. Final confidence: 0.67.
Philosophical basis
Institutionalist framework provides the strongest mechanical explanation for why March 2026 specifically is the peak pass-through window — contract-renewal lags, BLS measurement conventions, and collective pricing norm formation. Marxist framework uniquely explains why pass-through exceeds the tariff increment itself (oligopolistic surplus capture using tariff narrative as cover). Keynesian framework provides the most rigorous account of why the demand-side offset is insufficient at this time horizon. Austrian framework captures the inventory-buffer exhaustion timing mechanism. All four are necessary for a complete explanation; none is individually sufficient.
Falsification criteria
BLS releases March 2026 CPI data showing all-items YoY below 3.0%. A print of 2.9% or lower falsifies. A print of 3.0% or higher confirms.
Sources
- 292-automation-tech-association-retaliation-petition-escalation.md: automated retaliation defeats petition channel — structural parallel to how tariff pass-through defeats consumer counterpressure
- 371-liberty-solidarity-pollution-conformity-reserve.md: reserve asymmetry and waiting-capacity decomposition — relevant to why lower-income deciles cannot buffer tariff-induced price increases
- 376-polarization-ingroup-framing-threshold-trust.md: trust restructuring and threshold irreversibility — inflation expectations once unanchored are structurally sticky
Brier breakdown
Post-mortem
Auto-resolved (confirmed, confidence=0.97). Evidence: The BLS released March 2026 CPI data on April 10, 2026. The all-items CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (not seasonally adjusted), well above the 3.0% threshold. The spike was driven primarily by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict, which pushed energy costs up 10.9% overall. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) was 2.6% YoY. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-report-march-2026.html; https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-march-2026; https://artvoice.com/2026/04/10/cpi-report-shows-inflation-hit-3-3-percent-and-economists-say-april-could-be-even-worse/. Reasoning: The falsification criteria state: a print of 3.0% or higher confirms. The BLS reported 3.3% YoY for all-items CPI in March 2026, released April 10, 2026 — squarely within the resolution window and clearly above the 3.0% threshold. Multiple independent sources (CNBC, Fox Business, Artvoice, Kiplinger) corroborate the 3.3% figure. The prediction is confirmed with high confidence.