The US Liberation Day tariff package announced April 2, 2026 will NOT be implemented cleanly on schedule — by April 11, 2026, announced bilateral exemptions, product exclusions, implementation delays, or country-specific carve-outs will collectively affect more than 20% of the originally targeted import value.

All four frameworks converge on the same directional prediction with independent mechanisms, a strong signal. The Institutionalist framework has the highest confidence (0.72) and is most temporally specific: path dependence from 2018-2019 Section 301 has institutionalized a standing carve-out apparatus, and the bilateral concession Nash equilibrium predicts country-specific deals arrive before or at implementation, not months later. This is confirmed by the 2018 Section 232 precedent where Canada and Mexico were exempted on announcement day. The Marxist framework identifies the mechanism as superstructure capture — the exclusion apparatus was constructed under multinational capital hegemony and functions as a routed-around channel when hostile executive gestures threaten dominant fractions. The Austrian framework identifies the regulatory arbitrage cascade: affected firms redirect entrepreneurial capacity toward exclusion-seeking immediately on announcement, not after observing cost spikes. The Keynesian framework contributes the political transmission mechanism: organized business lobbying concentrates the demand-destruction signal to decision-makers faster than diffuse consumer signals. The primary source of uncertainty is the 9-day window — frameworks model the structural inevitability over weeks and months, but Section 232 precedent shows the bilateral exemption pathway can produce carve-outs on announcement day itself. Base rate from comparable episodes runs ~80% for carve-outs exceeding 20% within 90 days; adjusting down moderately for the compressed 9-day window yields confidence of 0.75.