The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will report February 2026 core PCE inflation (ex food and energy) at or above 2.7% year-over-year when released on March 28, 2026, materially complicating the FOMC's projected 2026 rate-cut path by causing a deferral of the anticipated June 2026 cut.

Step 1 — Framework convergence: All four frameworks independently predict a print at or above 2.7%, though for structurally distinct reasons. This convergence across orthogonal theoretical priors is the primary signal, raising confidence above what any single framework would justify. Step 2 — Mechanism triangulation: The OER shelter lag (institutionalist), tariff pass-through via oligopolistic concentration (institutionalist + Keynesian), monetary overhang (Austrian), and profit-led administered pricing (Marxist + Keynesian) are independently operating and mutually reinforcing. The absence of a mechanism for rapid resolution distinguishes this from transient demand shocks. Step 3 — Base rate adjustment: Historical base rate for above-2.7% readings in comparable structural contexts (post-tariff shock + shelter lag active) estimated at 0.60, derived from the 2022-2023 period when structural analogues sustained above-target readings for 18+ consecutive months. Step 4 — Downward adjustments: Goods deflation, uncertain base effects, and tariff timing uncertainty each justify small reductions. The aggregate confidence settles at 0.64 — above the base rate but moderated by genuine magnitude uncertainty around the specific 2.7% threshold. Step 5 — Austrian framework weighted highest because its tariff-as-relative-price-destruction mechanism most precisely explains why rate policy cannot address the current inflationary floor — it identifies the FOMC knowledge problem that makes institutional response structurally inadequate.