The UK government's proposed ban on cryptocurrency political donations will pass second reading in the House of Commons by 15 May 2026.

All four frameworks converge on the same structural conclusion: the substantive political conditions for passage are favorable (cross-party alignment, Labour majority, PPERA precedent, transparency framing, no significant opposition coalition), and the binding constraint is legislative scheduling, not political opposition. The Institutionalist framework (weighted highest at 0.35) gives conditional probability ~0.85 if introduced by late April but flags introduction timing as the decisive uncertainty. The Marxist framework’s explicit combined estimate (~0.47) reflects the same decomposition: high passage probability conditional on scheduling (~0.85) multiplied by moderate scheduling probability (~0.55). The Austrian framework arrives at a similar structure (~0.42) through cartel-logic reasoning. The Keynesian framework is most pessimistic (~0.30-0.35) on the basis of legislative bandwidth scarcity and paradox-of-thrift dynamics among parties. Weighted synthesis: (0.47×0.30) + (0.42×0.20) + (0.33×0.15) + (0.50×0.35) = 0.141 + 0.084 + 0.050 + 0.175 = 0.45. Downward adjusted to 0.42 to account for the bill’s ‘[NEW]’ status indicating it has not yet cleared the introduction threshold, and for the structural observation that 7.5 weeks is below the median introduction-to-second-reading interval for comparable electoral finance legislation. The base rate of 0.38 (government bills reaching second reading within 8 weeks of announcement, PPERA 2000 analogy with documented delays) anchors the estimate; the favorable structural alignment across all frameworks justifies a modest upward adjustment to 0.42.